Updated 1 May 2008
BackgroundThe forecast for Summer 2008 has been derived using a number of global forecasting models and statistical methods. It is important to be aware of subsequent updates when new information may change the forecast emphasis.
The main feature of Summer 2007 was the high rainfall experienced in many regions, especially during June and July. For parts of England and Wales, notably the Midlands, it was the wettest summer since the national and regional rainfall series began in 1914. Temperatures last summer were near the 1971-2000 average. However, against the background of warming climate, Summer 2007 was relatively cool – the coolest since 1998.
Forecasts are expressed as variations from 1971-2000 averages. Summer, in this context, is defined as the months of June, July and August. Seasonal trends affect quite large geographic areas, so the forecast for the UK is cast in the broader picture for Europe as a whole.
European forecast for Summer 2008
As last month, our forecasting systems indicate more frequent low pressure systems over northern Europe than is usually the case in summer. The outlook for Europe and the UK is therefore similar to that stated for last month.
Temperature and rainfall
For north-west Europe we continue to predict a slightly enhanced risk of more unsettled spells than usual with average or above-average rainfall. In contrast, rainfall is more likely to be below average over much of southern and eastern Europe. Mean summer temperatures are more likely to be above 1971-2000 averages over much of Europe, with the highest probabilities of warmer than average over Mediterranean regions.
UK forecast for Summer 2008
Temperature
There is a slightly enhanced chance of more frequent cloudy and cool spells compared to recent summers prior to 2007. Nevertheless, mean temperatures are more likely to be above the 1971-2000 average.
Rainfall
Our forecasting methods continue to suggest that rainfall is more likely to be either near, or above average.
Updates and reviews of the forecast
The summer forecast will next be updated at 10 a.m. on 29 May 2008.
