Updated 22 November 2007
The forecast probabilities are calculated by combining results from statistical prediction methods, guidance from global seasonal models and assessment of climate warming trends.
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Forecast probability that temperatures taken over the winter period (December 2007 to February 2008) will be above/below 1971-2000 averages. Latest evidence continues to indicate that, for most parts of Europe, above-normal winter temperatures are more likely than below-normal temperatures. In most regions the odds for warmer-than-normal versus colder-than-normal are at least 60/40. Probabilities for above-normal temperatures are higher for northern and western Europe than for some central and southern regions. |
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Forecast probability that precipitation over the winter period (December 2007 to February 2008) will be above/below average. Although the signal is 'patchy', latest evidence suggests that above-normal rainfall is now weakly favoured over northern Europe. In contrast, below-normal rainfall is weakly favoured over southern Europe. |
