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Winter 2007/8 forecast appraisal

Updated 7 May 2008

The forecast appraisal is based on the winter forecast issued in November 2007. To see an assessment of the weather experienced across the UK during Winter 2007/8 see the Winter 2007/8 summary.

Winter forecast 2007/8 appraisal
  Prediction Outcome
European mean temperature Headline: most likely warmer than average over much of Europe but colder than last winter in most regions. Warmer than average over most regions (but colder than average in parts of eastern Europe and the central Mediterranean).

Winter 2007/8 was colder than winter 2006/7 over most of Europe, but not in the far north and parts of Iberia.
UK mean temperature

Headline: Most likely warmer than average, but colder than last winter.
Specific forecast probabilities:
Warmer than average: 50%
Near average: 30%     
Below average: 20%

Highest probability of cold spells in early winter.

Warmer than average and colder than last winter.

The coldest spell occurred in December (in terms of UK daily mean temperature).

European precipitation totals Most likely above average for northern Europe; below average for southern Europe. Above average or near average over much of northern Europe, below average over much of southern Europe.
UK precipitation totals Headline: Most likely average or above average
Specific forecast probabilities:
Wetter than average: 35%
Near average: 35% 
Drier than average: 30%
Above average.
  Mean temperature probability forecast chart
Forecast probability for temperature above/below 1971-2000 average.
Observed mean temperature difference from average
Observed temperature difference from 1971-2000 average.