Winter 2008/9 forecast for Europe
Updated 25 September 2008
The forecast probabilities are calculated by combining results from statistical prediction methods, guidance from global seasonal models and assessment of climate warming trends.
Probability of mean winter temperature above/below average
Probability that winter temperatures will be above/below average.
In most parts of Europe above-normal winter temperatures are forecast to be more likely than below-normal temperatures. In northwest Europe and parts of the Mediterranean the odds for warmer-than-normal versus colder-than-normal are at least 60/40. Elsewhere, including parts of southern, central and north-eastern Europe, the odds for colder or warmer than normal are more evenly balanced.
Probability of mean winter precipitation above/below average
Probability that winter precipitation will be above/below average.
The forecast methods currently give no clear evidence to favour one precipitation category over the other.
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