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Original Winter 2008/9 forecast

Updated 25 September 2008

Met Office seasonal forecasts are expressed as variations from 1971-2000 averages. Variations from long-term averages usually affect quite large geographic areas, so the forecast for the UK is cast in the broader picture for Europe as a whole.

The mean UK temperature last winter was 1.2 °C above the 1971-2000 average and was the 9th highest since 1914. Last winter was wetter than average, with 116% of the 1971-2000 average and was the 14th wettest since 1914.

Winter, in this context, is defined as the months of December, January and February although it is recognised that winter weather can extend beyond this period, especially in northern Britain.

Forecast for Winter 2008/9

Temperature

Winter temperatures are more likely to be above normal over much of the European region. However, this winter is likely to be less mild than last winter, when above-average temperatures were widespread.

For the UK as a whole, winter-mean temperatures are more likely to be above normal. Although a winter milder than the 1971-2000 average is favoured, temperatures are likely to be lower than those experienced last year.

Rainfall

For much of northern Europe, including the UK, rainfall is likely to be lower than observed in last year's relatively wet winter. However, this signal is not sufficient to indicate whether winter precipitation totals are more likely to be above or below the 1971-2000 average.

More about the forecast for UK
More about the forecast for Europe
Methods and background

Forecast uncertainties

Seasonal forecasts indicate how slowly-varying large-scale climate influences make particular seasonal conditions more likely than others. Random, unpredictable factors ('chaos') also partly determine year-to-year variations, and these will sometimes override large-scale influences. Such uncertainties make a probabilistic format, as used here, advisable for seasonal forecasts.

Updates and reviews of the forecast

Updates to the forecast will be issued at 10 a.m. on: 29 October, 25 November, 22 December 2008 and 22 January 2009.