Winter 2008/9 forecast for UK
Updated 25 November 2008
Probability of mean winter temperature above/below average
The observed frequency of each of these three categories over the period 1971-2000 is equal at 33.3%. For this winter the warmer category is forecast to be most likely (40% probability), the middle category second-most likely (35% probability) and the colder category least likely (25% probability). Last year the UK winter mean temperature was in the warm category at 4.9 °C. The 1971-2000 average temperature for the UK is 3.7 °C.
Probability of mean winter precipitation above/below average
The long-term average probability for each of these three categories is estimated to be equal at 33.3%. There is currently no indication in the forecast that any one category is favoured – with forecast probabilities for all three categories equal to the long-term average of 33.3%. Last year winter precipitation was in the wetter category at 386 mm. The 1971-2000 average winter precipitation for the UK is 332 mm.
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