Tropical cyclone activity
| Tropical cyclones ending during the month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWP | NEP | NAT | NI | SWI | AUS | Total | |
| Total number ending during the month | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| Tropical cyclones active during the month | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Identifier | Basin | Start date | End date | 1-minute MSW | 10-minute MSW |
| Noel | 16L | NAT | 28 October | 02 November | 70 | - |
| - | 05A | NI | 28 October | 02 November | 45 | 30 |
| Peipah | 21W | NWP | 03 November | 09 November | 75 | 70 |
| Sidr | 06B | NI | 11 November | 16 November | 135 | 125 |
| Tapah | 22W | NWP | 11 November | 12 November | 35 | 35 |
| Guba | 02P | AUS | 13 November | 19 November | 75 | 75 |
| 03S | SWI | 14 November | 18 November | 65 | 50 | |
| Bongwe | 04S | SWI | 18 November | 24 November | 65 | 55 |
| Hagibis | 23W | NWP | 19 November | 28 November | 85 | 70 |
| Mitag | 24W | NWP | 20 November | 27 November | 95 | 80 |
| - | 25W | NWP | 26 November | 27 November | 25 | - |
| - | 26W | NWP | 28 November | 28 November | 25 | - |
Basin name abbreviations:
NWP : North-west Pacific (west of 180° E)
NEP : North-east Pacific (east of 180° E)
NAT : North Atlantic
1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1
minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10
minutes (JMA Japan, Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than
10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are
obtained from different warning centres.
Tropical cyclones still active at the end of the month
None
Forecast error statistics
The Met Office global Numerical Weather Prediction model produces a 6-day forecast every 12 hours. The performance of the model in forecasting this month's tropical cyclones is assessed below. Mean error statistics for each storm that ended during the month are presented together with a final table of statistics for all storms ending this month. Verification is performed at 24 hour intervals up to forecast time T+120. Some mean error statistics for last year's storms are included for the purposes of a comparison. The present global model has a resolution of 0.5625°x 0.375°x 50 levels. This is equivalent to a horizontal resolution of 62km x 42km at the equator.
Individual tropical cyclone summaries
Name: NOEL Identifier: 16L
Basin: NORTH ATLANTIC
Start date: 28.10.2007 End
date: 02.11.2007
1-minute MSW: 70 knots
10-minute MSW: - knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | **** |
| Mean DX | 31 | 43 | 7 | -88 | -269 | **** |
| Mean DY | 39 | -17 | 41 | 58 | -300 | **** |
| Mean AT | 10 | -97 | -43 | 28 | -402 | **** |
| Mean CT | 33 | 51 | 59 | -76 | -53 | **** |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 55 | 68 | 75 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 85 | 166 | 179 | 197 | 408 | **** |
| 2006 DPE * | 46 | 109 | 213 | 322 | 425 | 529 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 0 | 67 | 0 | 100 | **** |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NAT basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Track forecast errors were below last season's average at most lead times. Skill scores against CLIPER were very high.
Name: - Identifier: 05A
Basin: NORTH INDIAN (Arabian Sea)
Start date: 28.10.2007 End
date: 02.11.2007
1-minute MSW: 45 knots 10-minute MSW: 30 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | **** | **** |
| Mean DX | -40 | -197 | -254 | -218 | **** | **** |
| Mean DY | -29 | -11 | -128 | -123 | **** | **** |
| Mean AT | -24 | 76 | 183 | 128 | **** | **** |
| Mean CT | -13 | 28 | -203 | -216 | **** | **** |
| Track skill (%) | **** | -118 | -10 | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 92 | 216 | 285 | 253 | **** | **** |
| 2006 DPE * | 93 | 164 | 254 | 443 | 940 | 897 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 33 | 0 | -100 | **** | **** |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NI basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Track forecast errors at short lead times were above last season's average and skill scores were low. During the storm's early slow moving phase the forecasts had a westward bias. The westward movement did eventually occur.
Name: PEIPAH Identifier: 21W
Basin: NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
Start date: 03.11.2007 End
date: 09.11.2007
1-minute MSW: 75 knots 10-minute MSW: 70 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | **** |
| Mean DX | -3 | 65 | 94 | 57 | -203 | **** |
| Mean DY | 5 | 51 | 31 | -193 | -400 | **** |
| Mean AT | 4 | -63 | -60 | 8 | 326 | **** |
| Mean CT | 11 | 28 | 58 | -130 | -242 | **** |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 58 | 73 | 38 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 60 | 112 | 142 | 228 | 407 | **** |
| 2006 DPE * | 60 | 114 | 204 | 304 | 422 | 551 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 14 | -20 | 33 | 100 | **** |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NWP basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average. Skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Name: SIDR Identifier: 06B
Basin: NORTH INDIAN (Bay of Bengal)
Start date: 11.11.2007 End
date: 16.11.2007
1-minute MSW: 135 knots 10-minute MSW: 125 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | **** |
| Mean DX | -12 | 11 | -26 | -177 | -509 | **** |
| Mean DY | 40 | -27 | -165 | -494 | -923 | **** |
| Mean AT | 43 | -32 | -170 | -525 | -1053 | **** |
| Mean CT | 0 | 44 | 28 | -61 | -16 | **** |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 33 | 41 | 31 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 63 | 130 | 194 | 532 | 1054 | **** |
| 2006 DPE * | 93 | 164 | 254 | 443 | 940 | 897 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 71 | 100 | 33 | 100 | **** |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NI basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Track forecast errors were below average at short lead times, but well above average at longer lead times. This was the result of a failure to predict the rapid acceleration of Sidr as it approached the coast. Hence, predictions of landfall were much later than actually occurred. This is indicated by the large slow bias in the statistics. Skill scores against CLIPER were still good.
Name: TAPAH Identifier:22W
Basin: NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
Start date: 11.11.2007 End
date: 12.11.2007
1-minute MSW: 35 knots 10-minute MSW: 35 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DX | -15 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DY | -39 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean AT | -65 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean CT | 14 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 53 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| 2006 DPE * | 60 | 114 | 204 | 304 | 422 | 551 |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NWP basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Tapah was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.
Name: GUBA Identifier: 02P
Basin: AUSTRALIAN (Coral Sea)
Start date: 13.11.2007 End
date: 19.11.2007
1-minute MSW: 75 knots 10-minute MSW: 75 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Mean DX | -9 | 78 | 134 | 198 | 177 | 393 |
| Mean DY | -3 | 87 | 57 | 18 | -33 | 100 |
| Mean AT | -18 | -97 | -118 | -117 | -141 | -99 |
| Mean CT | 16 | -12 | -15 | -85 | -9 | -391 |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 28 | 59 | 72 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 43 | 166 | 212 | 252 | 191 | 404 |
| 2006 DPE * | 62 | 149 | 351 | 665 | 1062 | 1533 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 33 | 14 | 20 | -33 | -100 |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006-7 season in the AUS basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Guba meandered slowly for several days and track forecasts generally had errors below last season's average. Skill scores against CLIPER were also positive.
Name: LEE-ARIEL Identifier: 03S
Basin: AUSTRALIAN (SE Indian)/SOUTH-WEST INDIAN
Start date: 03.11.2007 End
date: 09.11.2007
1-minute MSW: 75 knots 10-minute MSW: 70 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DX | 15 | -44 | -136 | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DY | 15 | 39 | -17 | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean AT | 25 | -6 | 132 | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean CT | 37 | 12 | -3 | **** | **** | **** |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 38 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 69 | 124 | 147 | **** | **** | **** |
| 2006 DPE * | 49 | 129 | 279 | 456 | 662 | 799 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 50 | 100 | **** | **** | **** |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006-7 season in the SWI basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Lee originated in the Australian region and moved into the South-West Indian region and was renamed Ariel. It is considered a South-West Indian Ocean storm for statistical purposes.
Track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average.
Name: BONGWE Identifier: 04S
Basin: SOUTH-WEST INDIAN
Start date: 18.11.2007 End
date: 24.11.2007
1-minute MSW: 65 knots 10-minute MSW: 55 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | **** |
| Mean DX | 0 | -69 | -353 | -486 | -509 | **** |
| Mean DY | 5 | 93 | 113 | 48 | -11 | **** |
| Mean AT | -11 | 33 | 247 | 353 | 447 | **** |
| Mean CT | -3 | 36 | 96 | 65 | 234 | **** |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 27 | 10 | 5 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 50 | 156 | 376 | 492 | 505 | **** |
| 2006 DPE * | 49 | 129 | 279 | 456 | 662 | 799 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 14 | 60 | 33 | 100 | **** |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006-7 season in the SWI basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Track forecast errors were generally above last season's average for this storm. There was a fast bias in forecasts, but skill scores were positive.
Name: HAGIBIS Identifier: 23W
Basin: NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
Start date: 18.11.2007 End
date: 28.11.2007
1-minute MSW: 85 knots 10-minute MSW:
70 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 17 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 86 |
| Mean DX | -30 | -30 | 13 | 125 | 214 | 166 |
| Mean DY | -6 | -2 | -20 | -33 | 135 | 237 |
| Mean AT | 1 | -52 | -26 | 74 | 224 | 178 |
| Mean CT | 8 | 49 | 5 | -11 | -106 | -216 |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 39 | 73 | 72 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 58 | 117 | 129 | 197 | 276 | 291 |
| 2006 DPE * | 60 | 114 | 204 | 304 | 422 | 551 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 33 | 38 | -9 | 11 | -33 |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NWP basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Hagibis was a highly unusual tropical cyclone in that it crossed The Philippines from east to west then stalled just short of Vietnam and doubled back on itself crossing The Philippines a second time. This motion was due to interaction with Typhoon Mitag.
Some models and forecast guidance did not pick up on the unusual motion of Hagibis and predicted landfall in Vietnam. However, Met Office global model forecasts correctly and consistently predicted the 180 degree turn of the storm near to 111 °W. Hence, track forecast errors and skill scores were very good.
Name: MITAG Identifier: 24W
Basin: NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
Start date: 20.11.2007 End
date: 27.11.2007
1-minute MSW: 95 knots 10-minute MSW: 80 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 14 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Mean DX | -15 | 5 | -7 | 0 | 49 | 286 |
| Mean DY | 21 | 72 | 75 | 111 | 310 | 434 |
| Mean AT | 12 | 19 | 78 | 114 | 112 | 227 |
| Mean CT | -14 | -15 | -30 | 44 | -83 | 11 |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 45 | 50 | 54 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 65 | 119 | 175 | 186 | 369 | 527 |
| 2006 DPE * | 60 | 114 | 204 | 304 | 422 | 551 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 17 | 0 | 0 | -33 | -100 |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NWP basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
The north-westward turn of Mitag whilst to the east of The Philippines, landfall over northern Luzon and interaction with Typhoon Hagibis were all handled well by the model. Hence, track forecast errors were lower than average and skill scores high.
Name: - Identifier: 25W
Basin: NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
Start date: 26.11.2007 End
date: 27.11.2007
1-minute MSW: 25 knots 10-minute MSW: - knots
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NWP basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
There are no verification statistics or forecast plot for this tropical cyclone since its 1-minute averaged winds did not reach tropical storm strength.
Name: - Identifier: 26W
Basin: NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
Start date: 28.11.2007 End
date: 28.11.2007
1-minute MSW: 25 knots 10-minute MSW: - knots
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NWP basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
There are no verification statistics or forecast plot for this tropical cyclone since its 1-minute averaged winds did not reach tropical storm strength.
Summary of all tropical cyclones
Mean error statistics for all tropical cyclones (of at least tropical storm strength) which have ended this month are shown below.
Total number of depressions ending this month: 12
Number of storms used in statistics below: 10
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 95 | 75 | 57 | 39 | 23 | 12 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 92 |
| Mean DX | -9 | -9 | -29 | -6 | 43 | 230 |
| Mean DY | 8 | 32 | 8 | -34 | 45 | 296 |
| Mean AT | 3 | -29 | 8 | 26 | 51 | 171 |
| Mean CT | 7 | 24 | 2 | -33 | -70 | -149 |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 37 | 56 | 63 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 64 | 141 | 193 | 256 | 350 | 387 |
| 2006 DPE * | 57 | 112 | 203 | 303 | 422 | 537 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 31 | 18 | -11 | 100 | **** |
* DPE for all northern hemisphere storms in 2006 season
Track forecast errors were below last season's average at all lead times except T+24. Skill scores were high and there was no significant bias in forecasts for this month's cases as a whole. The overall intensity tendency skill score was 24%.