Tropical cyclone activity
| Tropical cyclones ending during the month | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWP | NEP | NAT | NI | SWI | AUS | Total | |
| Total number ending during the month | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Tropical cyclones active during the month | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Identifier | Basin | Start date | End date | 1-minute MSW | 10-minute MSW |
| Juliette | 14E | NEP | 29 September | 02 October | 50 | 1 |
| Lekima | 16W | NWP | 30 September | 04 October | 70 | 60 |
| Krosa | 17W | NWP | 01 october | 08 October | 130 | 105 |
| Haiyan | - | NWP | 05 October | 06 October | - | 35 |
| Podul | - | NWP | 06 October | 06 October | - | 35 |
| - | 15L | NAT | 11 October | 12 October | 30 | - |
| Lingling | 18W | NWP | 12 October | 15 October | 40 | 45 |
| Kiko | 15E | NEP | 15 October | 23 October | 60 | - |
| Kajiki | 91W | NWP | 19 October | 22 October | 110 | 90 |
| Faxai | 20W | NWP | 26 October | 27 October | 40 | 55 |
Basin name abbreviations:
NWP : North-west Pacific (west of 180° E)
NEP : North-east Pacific (east of 180° E)
NAT : North Atlantic
1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1
minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10
minutes (JMA Japan, Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than
10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are
obtained from different warning centres.
Tropical cyclones still active at the end of the month
| Tropical cyclones still active at the end of the month | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Identifier | Basin | Start date |
| Noel | 16L | NAT | 28 October |
| - | 05A | NI | 28 October |
Forecast error statistics
The Met Office global Numerical Weather Prediction model produces a 6-day forecast every 12 hours. The performance of the model in forecasting this month's tropical cyclones is assessed below. Mean error statistics for each storm that ended during the month are presented together with a final table of statistics for all storms ending this month. Verification is performed at 24 hour intervals up to forecast time T+120. Some mean error statistics for last year's storms are included for the purposes of a comparison. The present global model has a resolution of 0.5625°x 0.375°x 50 levels. This is equivalent to a horizontal resolution of 62km x 42km at the equator.
Individual tropical cyclone summaries
Name: JULIETTE Identifier: 14E
Basin: NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
Start date: 29.09.2007 End
date: 02.10.2007
1-minute MSW: 50 knots
10-minute MSW:- knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DX | 5 | 125 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DY | -31 | 62 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean AT | -31 | -26 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean CT | -7 | 129 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 31 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 66 | 141 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| 2006 DPE * | 51 | 103 | 185 | 265 | 366 | 430 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 100 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NEP basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Just two T+24 forecasts were verified for this storm, which had track errors slightly above last season’s average.
Name: LEKIMA Identifier: 16W
Basin: NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
Start date: 30.09.2007 End date: 04.10.2007
1-minute MSW: 70 knots 10-minute MSW: 60 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | **** | **** |
| Mean DX | 39 | -75 | -46 | 111 | **** | **** |
| Mean DY | -25 | -54 | 3 | 17 | **** | **** |
| Mean AT | -42 | 18 | 36 | -127 | **** | **** |
| Mean CT | 9 | -73 | -17 | 13 | **** | **** |
| Track skill (5) | **** | 45 | 62 | 33 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 62 | 100 | 166 | 161 | **** | **** |
| 2006 DPE * | 60 | 114 | 204 | 304 | 422 | 551 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 67 | 0 | 100 | **** | **** |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NWP basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track |
Track forecast errors were low and skill scores against CLIPER high for this typhoon.
Name: KROSA Identifier: 17W
Basin: NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
Start date: 01.10.2007 End date: 08.10.2007
1-minute MSW: 135 knots 10-minute MSW: 105 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 14 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Mean DX | 27 | -27 | -56 | 1 | 75 | 100 |
| Mean DY | 17 | 6 | -70 | -24 | 6 | -150 |
| Mean AT | 8 | 12 | -27 | -23 | -54 | -164 |
| Mean CT | 34 | 5 | -66 | 1 | 56 | 40 |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 40 | 63 | 82 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 69 | 118 | 111 | 106 | 170 | 335 |
| 2006 DPE * | 60 | 114 | 204 | 304 | 422 | 551 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 17 | 0 | 25 | 33 | 50 |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NWP basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track |
Skill scores were high and at lead times of T+48 and greater track forecast errors were very low for this typhoon.
Name: HAIYAN Identifier: -
Basin: NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
Start date: 05.10.2007 End date: 06.10.2007
1-minute MSW: - knots 10-minute MSW: 35 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DX | 5 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DY | -29 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean AT | -24 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean CT | -8 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 29 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| 2006 DPE * | 60 | 114 | 204 | 304 | 422 | 551 |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NWP basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track |
Haiyan was named by JMA, but no advisories were issued by JTWC. It was short-lived and no forecasts were verified.
Name: PODUL Identifier: -
Basin: NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
Start date: 06.10.2007 End date: 06.10.2007
1-minute MSW: - knots 10-minute MSW: 35 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DX | -83 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DY | 44 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean AT | -35 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean CT | -82 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 90 | **** | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| 2006 DPE * | 60 | 114 | 204 | 304 | 422 | 551 |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NWP basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Podul was named by JMA, but no advisories were issued by JTWC. It was short-lived and no forecasts were verified.
Name: - Identifier: 15L
Basin: NORTH ATLANTIC
Start date: 11.10.2007 End date: 12.10.2007
1-minute MSW: 30 knots 10-minute MSW: - knots
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track |
There are no verification statistics or forecast plot for this tropical cyclone since its 1-minute averaged winds did not reach tropical storm strength.
Name: LINGLING Identifier: 18W
Basin: NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
Start date: 12.10.2007 End date: 15.10.2007
1-minute MSW: 40 knots 10-minute MSW: 45 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DX | -39 | -41 | 39 | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DY | -40 | -47 | -89 | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean AT | -55 | -135 | -71 | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean CT | -18 | -17 | -30 | **** | **** | **** |
| Track skill (%) | **** | -51 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 61 | 298 | 325 | **** | **** | **** |
| 2006 DPE * | 60 | 114 | 204 | 304 | 422 | 551 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 50 | 100 | **** | **** | **** |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NWP basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Track forecast errors were high for this storm and there was no skill against CLIPER.
Name: KIKO Identifier: 15E
Basin: NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
Start date: 15.10.2007 End date: 23.10.2007
1-minute MSW: 60 knots 10-minute MSW: - knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Mean DX | -9 | -13 | -32 | -13 | 84 | -354 |
| Mean DY | -6 | 7 | -28 | -98 | -203 | -273 |
| Mean AT | 14 | -81 | -110 | 3 | -223 | 71 |
| Mean CT | 17 | -12 | -38 | 6 | -243 | -345 |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 37 | 42 | 49 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 48 | 135 | 236 | 316 | 542 | 455 |
| 2006 DPE * | 51 | 103 | 185 | 265 | 366 | 430 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 60 | 25 | 0 | 0 | -100 |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NEP basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
Kiko was a difficult storm to forecast and some of the changes of direction were not well forecast. Consequently track forecast errors were above last season’s average. However, despite this skill scores against CLIPER were high emphasising the unusual nature of the storm track.
Name: KAJIKI Identifier: 19W
Basin: NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
Start date: 19.10.2007 End date: 22.10.2007
1-minute MSW: 110 knots 10-minute MSW: 90 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DX | -8 | -186 | -601 | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DY | 18 | -103 | -295 | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean AT | 3 | -213 | -673 | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean CT | -10 | -28 | -41 | **** | **** | **** |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 6 | 22 | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 47 | 263 | 674 | **** | **** | **** |
| 2006 DPE * | 60 | 114 | 204 | 304 | 422 | 551 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 50 | 0 | **** | **** | **** |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NWP basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track and forecasts |
The model was not able to predict the north-eastwards acceleration of this typhoon and consequently track forecast errors were large.
Name: FAXAI Identifier: 20W
Basin: NORTH-WEST PACIFIC
Start date: 26.10.2007 End date: 27.10.2007
1-minute MSW: 40 knots 10-minute MSW: 55 knots
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DX | 35 | -39 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DY | -4 | 211 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean AT | 1 | 125 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean CT | 31 | -173 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 97 | 214 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
| 2006 DPE * | 60 | 114 | 204 | 304 | 422 | 551 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 100 | **** | **** | **** | **** |
* DPE for all storms in the 2006 season in the NWP basin
 |
Plot of the storm's observed track |
Faxai was briefly a tropical storm and just one forecast was verified.
Summary of all tropical cyclones
Mean error statistics for all tropical cyclones (of at least tropical storm strength) which have ended this month are shown below.
Total number of depressions ending this month: 10
Number of storms used in statistics below: 9
| MEAN ERROR STATISTICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T+0 | T+24 | T+48 | T+72 | T+96 | T+120 | |
| Possibly Verified | 56 | 39 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 6 |
| Detection Rate (%) | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Mean DX | 6 | -41 | -82 | 9 | 79 | -51 |
| Mean DY | -5 | -12 | -65 | -47 | -78 | -191 |
| Mean AT | -10 | -48 | -96 | -26 | -122 | -86 |
| Mean CT | 10 | -15 | -45 | 4 | -64 | -88 |
| Track skill (%) | **** | 27 | 49 | 64 | **** | **** |
| Mean DPE | 61 | 156 | 218 | 192 | 319 | 375 |
| 2006 DPE * | 57 | 112 | 203 | 303 | 422 | 537 |
| Intensity skill (%) | **** | 49 | 15 | 25 | 20 | 0 |
* DPE for all northern hemisphere storms in 2006 season
Track forecast errors were above last season’s average at short lead times, but below the average at long lead times. There was a slow bias in forecasts and the model showed skill over CLIPER. The detection rate was 100% at all lead times. The overall intensity tendency skill score was 30%.