Tropical cyclone forecast error charts
For those not familiar with the types of
error statistics used in tropical cyclone forecast assessment and their
sign conventions a diagrammatic
explanation is available.
Australian: South Indian Ocean east of 90°E and the South Pacific
Several meteorological centres who monitor tropical cyclones have developed models that forecast the tracks of tropical cyclones up to three days ahead using methods based on past climatology in the area and persistence. These are known as CLIPER models and are generally accepted as a benchmark against which numerical weather prediction models can be assesed.
- Forecast skill is defined as: (CLIPER DPE - Model DPE)/CLIPER DPE x 100%
- Positive skill indicates the model forecast is better than CLIPER.
- Negative skill indicates the CLIPER forecast is better than the model.
Direct Positional Errors
Forecast Skill against CLIPER
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