Met Office

Tropical cyclone forecast error charts - Met Office versus ECMWF

Error statistics

For those not familiar with the types of error statistics used in tropical cyclone forecast assessment and their sign conventions a diagrammatic explanation is available.

Forecast data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are routinely retrieved and run through the Met Office tropical cyclone track verification system. The graphs below show annual global comparisons of Met Office and ECMWF forecast track errors for homogeneous samples.

Time series T+24 to T+72 : This link opens in a new window . Enlarge image Enlarge

Time series T+96 to T+168 : This link opens in a new window . Enlarge image Enlarge

Time series difference : This link opens in a new window . Enlarge image Enlarge

Met Office intensity skill scores : This link opens in a new window . Enlarge image Enlarge

ECMWF intensity skill scores : This link opens in a new window . Enlarge image Enlarge

Intensity skill scores differences : This link opens in a new window . Enlarge image Enlarge

2012 : This link opens in a new window . Enlarge image Enlarge

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Last Updated: 7 January 2013

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