Tropical cyclone forecast error charts - Met Office versus ECMWF

Error statistics

For those not familiar with the types of error statistics used in tropical cyclone forecast assessment and their sign conventions a diagrammatic explanation is available.

Forecast data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are routinely retrieved and run through the Met Office tropical cyclone track verification system. The graphs below show annual global comparisons of Met Office and ECMWF forecast track errors for homogeneous samples.

Time series T+24 to T+72 .

Time series T+96 to T+168 .

Time series difference .

Met Office intensity skill scores .

ECMWF intensity skill scores .

Intensity skill scores differences .

2013 track errors .

2012 track errors .

2011 track errors .

2010 track errors .

2009 track errors .

2008 track errors .

2007 track errors .

2006 track errors .

2005 track errors .

2004 track errors .

2003 track errors .

2002 track errors .

2001 track errors .

2000 track errors .

1999 track errors .

1998 track errors .

1997 track errors .

1996 track errors .

1995 track errors ..

1994 track errors .

Last updated: 13 January 2014