Tropical cyclone forecast error charts - Met Office versus ECMWF

Error statistics

For those not familiar with the types of error statistics used in tropical cyclone forecast assessment and their sign conventions a diagrammatic explanation is available.

Forecast data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are routinely retrieved and run through the Met Office tropical cyclone track verification system. The graphs below show annual global comparisons of Met Office and ECMWF forecast track errors for homogeneous samples.

Time series T+24 to T+72 .

Time series T+96 to T+168 .

Time series difference .

Met Office intensity skill scores .

ECMWF intensity skill scores .

Intensity skill scores differences .

2013 track errors .

2012 .

2011 .

2010 .

2009 .

2008 .

2007 .

2006 .

2005 .

2004 .

2003 .

2002 .

2001 .

2000 .

1999 .

1998 .

1997 .

1996 .

1995 ..

1994 .

Last updated: 13 January 2014