Met Office

National Hurricane Center tropical cyclone forecast intercomparison - North Atlantic

Error statistics

For those not familiar with the types of error statistics used in tropical cyclone forecast assessment and their sign conventions a diagrammatic explanation is available.

Forecast data from the Met Office are routinely verified by the National Hurricane Center against the other models and forecast aids available to them. The graphs below show annual global comparisons of Met Office and other forecast track errors for the North Atlantic.

Met Office forecasts are denoted by 'Met Office'. Other forecasts used in the comparison are numerical models (e.g. NOGAPS, GFDL, GFS) and consensus aids (e.g. GUNA, CONU, TCON, TVCN). 'Official' is the NHC official forecast.

For a full explanation of the abbreviations for the forecasts used in the comparison see the appropriate Annual NHC Verification Report.

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Last Updated: 19 April 2013

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