Met Office

Tropical cyclone forecast error charts - northern hemisphere

The graphs below show a variety of measures of forecast errors and forecast skill for the Met Office global model forecasts of tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere.

For those not familiar with the types of error statistics used in tropical cyclone forecast assessment and their sign conventions a diagrammatic explanation is available.

Northern hemisphere forecast positional errors : This link opens in a new window . Enlarge image Enlarge

Northern hemisphere 5-year running mean forecast positional errors : This link opens in a new window . Enlarge image Enlarge

Northern hemisphere track forecast skill : This link opens in a new window . Enlarge image Enlarge

Northern hemisphere 5-year running mean track forecast skill : This link opens in a new window . Enlarge image Enlarge

Northern hemisphere cross-track forecast errors : This link opens in a new window . Enlarge image Enlarge

Northern hemisphere along-track forecast errors : This link opens in a new window . Enlarge image Enlarge

Northern hemisphere intensity skill scores : This link opens in a new window . Enlarge image Enlarge

Northern hemisphere 3-year running mean intensity skill scores : This link opens in a new window . Enlarge image Enlarge

Last Updated: 11 January 2013

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