Tropical Cyclone forecast error charts

Southern hemisphere

Several meteorological centres who monitor tropical cyclones have developed models that forecast the tracks of tropical cyclones up to 3 days ahead using methods based on past climatology in the area and persistence. These are known as CLIPER models and are generally accepted as a benchmark against which numerical weather prediction models can be assesed.

• Forecast skill is defined as: (CLIPER DPE - Model DPE)/CLIPER DPE x 100%
• Positive skill indicates the model forecast is better than CLIPER.
• Negative skill indicates the CLIPER forecast is better than the model.

Direct Positional Errors

Forecast Skill against CLIPER

Cross-track errors

Along-track errors

Intensity Skill