Observed and forecast tracks: northern hemisphere 2013

All tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere season in 2013 are listed below including details of their start and end dates and maximum sustained wind (MSW). Qualitative comments are included on the performance of the Met Office global model in predicting the track of each tropical cyclone.

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

North-west Pacific
Name & IDStart & end dates1-/10-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Sonamu (01W)03-08 January45/50 knotsTrack forecast errors were low and skill scores high for this storm.
Shanshan (02W)19-23 February25/35 knotsShanshan only briefly reached tropical storm status according to JMA and just one forecast was verified.
Yagi (03W)08-12 June55/45 knotsTrack forecast errors were near to or slightly above last season's average. There was a slight left-of-track bias in forecasts.
Leepi (04W)17-20 June35/40 knotsTrack forecast errors were near to or slightly below last season's average.
Bebinca (05W)20-24 June35/40 knotsTrack forecast errors were slightly above last season's average, although skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Rumbia (06W)27 June-02 July65/50 knotsTrack forecasts were very good with low errors and high skill scores.
Soulik (07W)07-14 July125/100 knotsTrack forecasts were very good with low errors and high skill scores.
Cimaron (08W)15-18 July40/40 knotsCimaron was only briefly a tropical storm and had a slight left-of-track bias in its forecast track.
Jebi (09W)31 July-03 August60/55 knotsTrack forecast errors were low and skill scores high for this storm.
Mangkhut (10W)05-07 August40/40 knotsThis was a short-lived storm, but track errors were low.
Utor (11W)09-15 August130/105 knotsTrack forecast errors were very low for this typhoon.
Trami (12W)17-22 August75/60 knotsTrack errors were very low and skill scores very high for this storm.
13W17 August25/- knotsNo forecasts were verified for this tropical depression.
Kong-rey (14W)26-31 August55/55 knotsTrack forecast errors were low for this storm, but the model weakened it too soon.
Yutu (-)01-03 September-/35 knotsEarly forecasts had an erroneous north-eastward movement, but short lead time errors were low.
Toraji (15W)01-03 September50/50 knotsTrack errors were large due to a failure to capture the rapid north-eastward acceleration.
Man-yi (16W)12-16 September60/60 knotsTrack errors were low. The recurvature and landfall were very well predicted.
Usagi (17W)16-22 September140/110 knotsThere was a slight right-of-track bias, but track errors were below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER high. Unlike some other models, erroneous landfall over Hong Kong was not predicted by the global model.
18W18 September25/- knots18W did not reach tropical storm strength and no forecasts were verified.
Pabuk (19W)21-26 September90/60 knotsLonger lead time errors were large due to the slow and left-of-track bias. However, short period track errors were low.
Wutip (20W)26-30 September90/70 knotsTrack errors were a little above last season's average due to a slow bias.
Sepat (21W)30 September-02 October35/40 knotsSepat was only brifly a tropical storm and track errors were low.
Fitow (22W)30 September-07 October90/75 knotsThere was a large disparity between models for early forecasts of Fitow. ECMWF had a northerly track whilst the Met Office model turned the storm westwards. Fitow did indeed turn west, but not as sharply as some Met Office model forecasts. However, track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Danas (23W)03-08 October125/100 knotsTrack forecast errors were near to last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER high.
Nari (24W)08-15 October105/75 knotsTrack forecast errors were near to or below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Wipha (25W)10-16 October115/90 knotsTrack forecast errors were mostly below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Francisco (26W)16-26 October140/105 knotsLonger lead time errors were large due to the failure to interact Francisco with Lekima correctly. However, short lead time errors were very low and skill scores high.
27W19-20 October25/- knots27W did not reach tropical storm strength and no forecasts were verified.
Lekima (28W)20-26 October140/115 knotsForecasts for Lekima were mostly excellent with low track forecast errors and high skill scores.
Krosa (29W)29 October-04 November100/80 knotsTrack forecast errors were a little higher than last season's average due to a left-of-track bias.
30W03-16 November35/30 knots30W only briefly (twice) reached tropical storms strength according to JTWC, but as a tropical depression persisted for a long time across the western Pacific and Bay of Bengal.
Haiyan (31W)03-11 November170/125 knotsThe track of Typhoon Haiyan was very well predicted with track errors well below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER very high. The location of landfall over the Philippines was well predicted days in advance, but with a slight timing error (too slow) at longer lead times.
Podul (32W)14-15 November25/35 knotsPodul was briefly a named storm according to JMA, but not a tropical storm according to JTWC. No forecasts were verified.
33W03-04 December30/- knots33W did not reach tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.

North-West Pacific observed tracks in 2013
North-West Pacific tropical cyclone names

North-east Pacific
Name & IDStart & end dates1-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Alvin (01E)15-17 May45 knotsTrack forecast errors were high for this storm, but the storm was very short-lived.
Barbara (02E)29-30 May65 knotsBarbara was short-lived and few forecasts were verified.
Cosme (03E)23-27 June75 knotsTrack forecast errors were mostly near to or below last season's average, although there was a fast bias at longer lead times.
Dalila (04E)30 June-07 July65 knotsTrack forecasts were very good with low errors and high skill scores.
Erick (05E)04-09 July70 knotsTrack forecast errors were mostly below last season's average and skill scores positive.
Flossie (06E)25-30 July60 knotsTrack forecast errors were mostly below last season's average and skill scores were high.
Gil (07E)30 July-07 August75 knotsTrack forecast errors were near to last season's average for this storm. The model predicted dissipation soon soon.
Henriette (08E)03-11 August90 knotsTrack forecast errors were slightly above last season's average for this storm. The model predicted dissipation soon soon.
Ivo (09E)22-25 August40 knotsIvo was only briefly a tropical storm.
Juliette (10E)28-29 August45 knotsJuliette was only briefly a tropical storm.
Kiko (11E)31 August-02 September60 knotsKiko was fairly short-lived and just a few forecasts were verified.
Lorena (12E)05-08 September40 knotsLorena only briefly reached tropical storm status.
Manuel (13E)13-20 September65 knotsTrack errors were above last season's average due to a slow bias. However, the model predicted the regeneration of Manuel into a hurricane after its first landfall well.
Narda (14E)06-10 October55 knotsNarda was relatively short-lived and only a few forecasts were verified.
Octave (15E)13-15 October55 knotsOctave was a fairly brief storm. The model tended to weaken the storm too rapidly.
Priscilla (16E)14-17 October40 knotsPriscilla was only briefly a tropical storm, but forecasts were good.
Raymond (17E)20-30 October110 knotsTrack forecast errors were a little above last season's average, but the model predicted the turn away from the Mexican coast early in the storm's lifetime well.
Sonia (18E)01-04 November40 knotsSonia was only briefly a tropical storm and just one forecast was verified.
Central North Pacific
Name & IDStart & end dates1-/10-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Pewa (01C)16-25 August65/55 knotsTrack forecast errors were high for this storm due to a left-of-track bias. The storm was also very weak in the model.
Unala (02C)19 August35/35 knotsUnala was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.
03C19-20 August30/- knots03C did not attain tropical storm status.

* Pewa, Unala and 03C all moved into the North-West Pacific region

North-East and Central North Pacific observed tracks in 2013

North-East Pacific tropical cyclone names

Central North Pacific tropical cyclone names
North Atlantic
Name & IDStart & end dates1-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Andrea (01L)05-07 June55 knotsTrack forecast errors were below last season's average for Andrea.
Barry (02L)17-21 June40 knotsBarry was short-lived as a tropical storm and only one forecast was verified.
Chantal (03L)08-11 July55 knotsThere was a slight right-of-track bias in forecasts and a tendency to dissipate the storm too soon.
Dorian (04L)24-27 July50 knotsThere was a slight fast bias in forecasts and a tendency to dissipate the storm too soon.
Erin (05L)15-18 August35 knotsTrack forecast errors were very low and skill scores high for this storm.
Fernand (06L)25-26 August45 knotsFernand was only briefly a tropical storm and just one forecast was verified.
Gabrielle (07L)04-13 September50 knotsTrack errors were below last season's average for this storm.
08L06-07 September30 knots08L did not reach tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
Humberto (09L)08-19 September75 knotsTrack forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER high for this storm. The various turns by the storm were well predicted by the model.
Ingrid (10L)12-17 September75 knotsTrack errors were near to last season's average for this storm. The turn towards land was well signalled, although landfall location was a little too far north.
Jerry (11L)29 September-03 October45 knotsTrack forecasts for Jerry were mostly higher than last season's average.
Karen (12L)03-06 October55 knotsTrack forecast errors were mostly lower than last season's average.
Lorenzo (13L)21-24 October45 knotsTrack forecast errors were near to last season's average.
Melissa (14L)18-22 November55 knotsTrack errors were low for this storm as its north-eastward turn and acceleration were well predicted.
Unnamed (15L)03-07 December55 knotsTrack errors were below last season's average for this subtropical storm added to the database in post season reanalysis.

North Atlantic observed tracks in 2013

North Atlantic tropical cyclone names

North Indian
(forecast track charts for Global and South Asia models shown)
Name & IDStart & end dates1-/10-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Mahasen (01B)10-16 May50/45 knotsTrack forecast errors were low at short lead times and high at long lead times for the global model. There was a right-of-track bias in forecasts. South Asia Model track forecast errors were larger than the global model.
Phailin (02B)09-12 October140/110 knotsThe formation of Cyclone Phailin was well predicted days in advance and track forecast errors once the storm had formed were very low.
30W03-16 November35/30 knots30W only briefly (twice) reached tropical storms strength according to JTWC, but as a tropical depression persisted for a long time across the western Pacific and Bay of Bengal.
03A08-11 November40/30 knotsTrack forecast errors were near to last season's average for this region, but forecasts did not predict landfall.
Helen (04B)18-22 November60/55 knotsSome early runs analysed Helen poorly resulting in large forecast errors.
Lehar (05B)23-28 November75/75 knotsEarly poor analyses resulted in forecasts with a northward bias. However, later forecasts were better with small track forecast errors.
Madi (06B)06-12 December70/65 knotsTrack forecast errors were mostly larger than last year's average due to a premature sharp turn southwestwards. However, this turn did eventually occur.

North Indian observed tracks in 2013

North Indian tropical cyclone names


Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)

10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (JMA Japan, IMD New Delhi)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.

Last updated: 21 February 2014