Observed and forecast tracks: northern hemisphere 2014

All tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere season in 2014 are listed below including details of their start and end dates and maximum sustained wind (MSW). Qualitative comments are included on the performance of the Met Office global model in predicting the track of each tropical cyclone.

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

North-west Pacific
Name & IDStart & end dates1-/10-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Lingling (01W)18-19 January35/35 knotsLingling was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.
Kajiki (02W)31 January-01 February35/35 knotsThe formation of Kajiki was well signalled and the errors of forecasts verified were small.
Faxai (03W)27 February-05 March75/65 knotsThe track of this storm was well predicted. Errors were below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
04W22 March30/- knots04W did not attain tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
Peipah (05W)03-10 April35/40 knotsPeipah only briefly reached tropical storm status. Track forecast errors were below last season's average.
Tapah (06W)27 April-01 May65/60 knotsForecasts had a left-of-track bias resulting in errors above last season's average.
Mitag (-)11 June-/40 knotsMitag was named by JMA, but did not attain tropical storm status according to JTWC. No forecasts were verified.
Hagibis (07W)14-18 June45/40 knotsHagibis was only briefly a tropical storm and track errors were close to average.
Neoguri (08W)03-10 July135/95 knotsThere was a slight right-of-track bias in forecasts, but track errors were below last serason's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Rammasun (09W)10-19 July135/90 knotsTrack forecast errors were low - particularly at shorter lead times. Skill scores were high. There was a slow bias in forecasts.
Matmo (10W)17-25 July85/70 knotsTrack forecast errors were low and skill scores high for this storm.
Halong (11W)28 July-10 August140/105 knotsTrack forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high. There was a slow bias, but landfall over south-western Japan was mostly well predicted.
Nakri (12W)29 July-03 August40/55 knotsTrack forecast errors were below last season's average for this storm.
Fengshen (13W)07-10 September60/55 knotsFengshen was a straight-running storm with very low track forecast errors.
14W07-08 September25/30 knotsThis depression did not achieve tropical storm status.
Kalmaegi (15W)10-17 September70/75 knotsTrack forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores very high. Landfall over the Philippines was well predicted.
Fung-wong (16W)17-23 September50/50 knotsForecasts for Fung-wong were very good with the changes in direction well predicted. Track errors were low and skill scores high.
Kammuri (17W)24-29 September55/50 knotsKammuri was another storm with low track forecast errors and high skill scores.
Phanfone (18W)28 September-06 October130/95 knotsApart from a couple of forecasts which tracked Phanfone too far east, forecasts were generally very good. Overall, track errors were mixed, but skill scores against CLIPER high.
Vongfong (19W)03-14 October155/115 knotsTrack forecasts for Vongfong were excellent with very low errors. The landfall over Japan was generally well predicted.
Nuri (20W)31 October-06 November155/105 knotsDespite predicting an accurate track for Nuri the model had a fast bias which resulted in forecast errors being larger than last season's average.
Sinlaku (21W)26-30 November55/50 knotsThe landfall of Sinlaku was predicted fairly well by the model.

North-West Pacific observed tracks in 2014
North-West Pacific tropical cyclone names

North-east Pacific
Name & IDStart & end dates1-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Amanda (01E)22-29 May135 knotsTrack forecast errors were below last season's average, although there was no skill against CLIPER.
Boris (02E)02-04 June35 knotsBoris only briefly attained tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
Cristina (03E)09-15 June125 knotsThere was a fast and left-of-track bias in forecasts resulting in track forecast errors above last season's average.
Douglas (04E)28 June-05 July40 knotsAt short lead times track forecast errors were low for this storm. There was a slight left-of-track bias.
Elida (05E)30 June-02 July45 knotsElida was a short-lived storm and track forecast errors were low.
Fausto (06E)07-09 July40 knotsFausto was short-lived and few forecasts were verified.
Genevieve (07E)25 July-12 August140 knotsGenevieve was short-lived as a storm in the east Pacific, but developed into a strong Hurricane as it neared and crossed the Dateline into the western Pacific. Track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Hernan (08E)26-29 July65 knotsTrack forecast errors were very low for Hernan.
Iselle (09E)31 July-09 August120 knotsTrack forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Julio (10E)04-15 August105 knotsTrack forecast errors were low and skill scores high at short lead times, but errors were high at long lead times due to a marked left-of-track bias in forecasts.
Karina (11E)13-27 August70 knotsTrack forecast errors were near to or below last season's average. The reversal in direction of Karina was well predicted.
Lowell (12E)18-24 August65 knotsTrack forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Marie (13E)22-29 August140 knotsTrack forecast errors were well below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Norbert (14E)02-08 September105 knotsTrack errors were below last season's average at nearly all lead times, but there was a left-of-track bias in forecasts.
Odile (15E)10-17 September115 knotsA couple of early forecasts had a left-of-track bias, but after this track forecasts were very good. Track forecast errors were below last season's average at most lead times.
16E11-15 September30 knotsNo forecasts verified as this depression did not achieve tropical storm status.
Polo (17E)16-22 September65 knotsTrack forecast errors for this storm were particularly low.
Rachel (18E)24-30 September75 knotsThere was a left-of-track bias in some forecasts resulting in long lead times errors above last season's average, but errors at shorter lead times were low.
Simon (19E)02-08 October115 knotsTrack errors were below last season's average. There was a slight left-of-track bias.
Trudy (20E)17-19 October45 knotsTrudy was only briefly a tropical storm.
Vance (21E)30 October-05 November95 knotsTrack forecast errors were near to last season's average. There was a left-of-track bias in forecasts.
Central North Pacific
Name & IDStart & end dates1-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Wali (01C)17-19 July40 knotsWali was a short-lived storm and few forecasts were verified.
Ana (02C)13-26 October75 knotsTrack forecast errors were below last season's average for this hurricane.


North-East and Central North Pacific observed tracks in 2014

North-East Pacific tropical cyclone names

Central North Pacific tropical cyclone names
North Atlantic
Name & IDStart & end dates1-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Arthur (01L)01-05 July85 knotsTrack errors at short lead times were very low. At longer lead times there was a slow bias in forecasts.
02L21-23 July30 knots02L did not achieve tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
Bertha (03L)01-06 August65 knotsTrack forecast errors were mostly below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Cristobal (04L)23-29 August70 knotsTrack forecast errors were near to last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Dolly (05L)01-03 September45 knotsDolly was a short-lived storm and few forecasts were verified.
Edouard (06L)11-19 September100 knotsForecasts for the track of Edouard were excellent with exceptionally low track errors and high skill scores.
Fay (07L)10-13 October65 knotsTrack errors were slightly above last season's average due to a fast bias.
Gonzalo (08L)12-19 October125 knotsTrack forecasts for Gonzalo were excellent with a very precise track and timing of turns. Errors at all lead times except the longest were below last season's average and skill scores were very high. The landfall over Bermuda was very well predicted.
Hanna (09L)22-28 October35 knotsHanna only briefly reached tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.

North Atlantic observed tracks in 2014

North Atlantic tropical cyclone names

North Indian
(forecast track charts for Global and South Asia models shown)
Name & IDStart & end dates1-/10-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
01B04-05 January40/30 knotsThis was a short-lived storm. It's initial and forecast positions were to the south of its actual location.
Nanauk (02A)10-13 June55/45 knotsTrack forecast errors were below last season's average, although skill scores against CLIPER were poor.
Hudhud (03B)07-13 October115/95 knotsTrack forecast errors were low compared to last season's average. The location of landfall was well predicted.
Nilofar (04A)25-30 October115/100 knotsTrack forecast errors were mostly below last season's average for this storm. Although some early forecasts predicted landfall, the Met Office model was the first to indicate that Nilofar would weaken and dissipate at sea.
05B05-07 November35/30 knots05B was only designated as a tropical storm by JTWC. Forecasts had track errors close to last season's average.

North Indian observed tracks in 2014

North Indian tropical cyclone names


Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)

10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (JMA Japan, IMD New Delhi)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.

Last updated: 3 December 2014