Observed and forecast tracks: northern hemisphere 2014

All tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere season in 2014 are listed below including details of their start and end dates and maximum sustained wind (MSW). Qualitative comments are included on the performance of the Met Office global model in predicting the track of each tropical cyclone.

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

North-west Pacific
Name & IDStart & end dates1-/10-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Lingling (01W)18-19 January35/35 knotsLingling was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.
Kajiki (02W)31 January-01 February35/35 knotsThe formation of Kajiki was well signalled and the errors of forecasts verified were small.
Faxai (03W)27 February-05 March75/65 knotsThe track of this storm was well predicted. Errors were below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
04W22 March30/- knots04W did not attain tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
Peipah (05W)03-10 April35/40 knotsPeipah only briefly reached tropical storm status. Track forecast errors were below last season's average.
Tapah (06W)27 April-01 May65/60 knotsForecasts had a left-of-track bias resulting in errors above last season's average.
Mitag (-)11 June-/40 knotsMitag was named by JMA, but did not attain tropical storm status according to JTWC. No forecasts were verified.
Hagibis (07W)14-18 June45/40 knotsHagibis was only briefly a tropical storm and track errors were close to average.
Neoguri (08W)03-10 July135/95 knotsThere was a slight right-of-track bias in forecasts, but track errors were below last serason's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Rammasun (09W)10-19 July135/90 knotsTrack forecast errors were low - particularly at shorter lead times. Skill scores were high. There was a slow bias in forecasts.
Matmo (10W)17-25 July85/70 knotsTrack forecast errors were low and skill scores high for this storm.

North-West Pacific observed tracks in 2014
North-West Pacific tropical cyclone names

North-east Pacific
Name & IDStart & end dates1-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Amanda (01E)22-29 May135 knotsTrack forecast errors were below last season's average, although there was no skill against CLIPER.
Boris (02E)02-04 June35 knotsBoris only briefly attained tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
Cristina (03E)09-15 June125 knotsThere was a fast and left-of-track bias in forecasts resulting in track forecast errors above last season's average.
Douglas (04E)28 June-05 July40 knotsAt short lead times track forecast errors were low for this storm. There was a slight left-of-track bias.
Elida (05E)30 June-02 July45 knotsElida was a short-lived storm and track forecast errors were low.
Fausto (06E)07-09 July40 knotsFausto was short-lived and few forecasts were verified.
Hernan (08E)26-29 July65 knotsTrack forecast errors were very low for Hernan.
Central North Pacific
Name & IDStart & end dates1-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Wali (01C)17-19 July40 knotsWali was a short-lived storm and few forecasts were verified.


North-East and Central North Pacific observed tracks in 2014

North-East Pacific tropical cyclone names

Central North Pacific tropical cyclone names
North Atlantic
Name & IDStart & end dates1-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Arthur (01L)01-05 July85 knotsTrack errors at short lead times were very low. At longer lead times there was a slow bias in forecasts.
02L21-23 July30 knots02L did not achieve tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.

North Atlantic observed tracks in 2014

North Atlantic tropical cyclone names

North Indian
(forecast track charts for Global and South Asia models shown)
Name & IDStart & end dates1-/10-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
01B04-05 January40/30 knotsThis was a short-lived storm. It's initial and forecast positions were to the south of its actual location.
Nanauk (02A)10-13 June55/45 knotsTrack forecast errors were below last season's average, although skill scores against CLIPER were poor.

North Indian observed tracks in 2014

North Indian tropical cyclone names


Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)

10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (JMA Japan, IMD New Delhi)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.

Last updated: 7 August 2014