Observed and forecast tracks: southern hemisphere 2009-10

All tropical cyclones in the southern hemisphere season in 2009-10 are listed below including details of their start and end dates and maximum sustained wind (MSW). Qualitative comments are included on the performance of the Met Office global model in predicting the track of each tropical cyclone.

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

South-west Indian
Name & IDStart & end dates1-/10-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Anja (01S)14-18 November105/85 knotsThere was a right-of-track bias in forecasts for this storm resulting in track errors above last season's average.
Bongani (02S)22-25 November45/40 knotsBongani was only briefly a tropical storm and just one 12-hour forecast was verified.
Cleo (03S)07-14 December115/105 knotsTrack forecast errors were near to or above last season's average. There was a right-of-track bias in forecasts.
David (05S)13-26 December55/55 knotsDavid was tracked as a tropical depression for a long time before reaching tropical storm status. Track forecast errors were near to last season's average and skill scores were high at longer lead times.
Edzani (07S)06-12 January135/115 knotsThere was a strong right-of-track bias in forecasts for Edzani resulting in large track forecast errors and poor skill scores.
11S28-30 January35/35 knots11S briefly reached tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
Fami (13S)02-03 February40/40 knotsFami only briefly reached tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
Gelane (16S)16-21 February125/110 knotsThere was a slow and right-of-track bias for forecasts for this storm resulting in track forecast errors above last season's average. Skill scores against CLIPER were also negative.
Hubert (18S)10-11 March35/55 knotsHubert was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.
Imani (21S)22-26 March70/70 knotsForecasts for this storm were poor. A west or south-westward track was predicted, but the storm moved southwards.
Joel (-)26-29 May-/60 knotsTrack forecast errors were below last season's average, but skill scores were negative.

South-west Indian observed tracks in 2009-10

South-west Indian tropical cyclone names

Australian
Name & IDStart & end dates 1-/10-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Laurence (06S)13-23 December115/110 knotsTrack errors were above last season's average at short lead times, but below at longer lead times. Skill scores against CLIPER were good. After the initial landfall, predictions that the storm would turn back out to sea and restrengthen were very good.
Magda (08S)20-22 January60/60 knotsMagda was fairly short-lived, but the few forecasts verified had small track errors.
Neville (-)20-21 January30/35 knotsNeville only briefly attained tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
Olga (09P)23-30 January50/55 knotsShort period forecasts for the initial landfall of Olga had low errors. Olga then tracked overland as a tropical depression only briefly regaining tropical storm status in the south-west of the Gulf of Carpentaria, before returning east as a tropical depression. Consequently just a couple of longer lead time forecasts were verified, but errors were low.
Paul (22P)27-31 March60/55 knotsTrack forecast errors were low and skill scores against CLIPER high for this storm
Robyn (23S)02-06 April60/65 knotsThere was a slow bias in forecasts resulting in errors a little above last season's average.
Sean (24S)22-25 April55/55 knotsTrack forecast errors were above last season's average, although skill scores were positive.

Australian tropical cyclone names
Indonesian tropical cyclone names
Papua New Guinea tropical cyclone names

Fiji (South Pacific)
Name & IDStart & end dates 1-/10-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Mick (04P)12-15 December65/60 knotsThere was a slow bias in forecasts for this storm and thus track errors were relatively high.
Nisha (10P)27-30 January50/40 knotsThere was a slow bias in forecasts resulting in errors above last season's average.
Oli (12P)31 January - 06 February115/100 knotsThere was a strong slow and right-of-track bias for forecasts for this storm resulting in large track forecast errors.
Pat (14P)07-11 February90/75 knotsLonger range forecasts turned Pat towards the west too soon resulting in large track forecast errors. However, at short lead times errors were small.
Rene (15P)10-16 February100/90 knotsThere was a slow and left-of-track bias in forecasts resulting in large track forecast errors, particularly at long lead times.
Sarah (17P)21-28 February35/35 knotsSarah was a tropical depression for much of its life before reaching tropical storm status for a day or so before dissipation. Track forecast errors during the tropical storm stage were near to or below last season's average.
Tomas (19P)11-17 March115/95 knotsForecasts for Tomas had a strong westward and slow bias resulting in large track forecast errors.
Ului (20P)11-20 March140/115 knotsTrack forecast errors were above last season's average due to the failure to predict well the southward then westward turn of the storm as it approached land. However, skill scores against CLIPER were high.

Fiji tropical cyclone names

Western Australian observed tracks in 2009-10
Eastern Australian and South Pacific observed tracks in 2009-10

South Atlantic
Name & IDStart & end dates 1-/10-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Anita (90Q)08-13 March-/45 knotsAnita was a rare South Atlantic storm. The track forecasts as the storm accelerated towards the south-east were very good.

Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute (JTWC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)

Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.

Last updated: 17 December 2013