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- Observed and forecast tracks: southern hemisphere 2012-13
Observed and forecast tracks: southern hemisphere 2012-13
All tropical cyclones in the southern hemisphere season in 2012-13 are listed below including details of their start and end dates and maximum sustained wind (MSW). Qualitative comments are included on the performance of the Met Office global model in predicting the track of each tropical cyclone.
Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anais (01S) | 12-18 October | 100/105 knots | There was a slight right-of-track bias in forecasts, but track errors were below last season's average for this storm. |
| Boldwin (02S) | 24-26 November | 55/55 knots | Boldwin was fairly short-lived and the model did not analyse or forecast it well. |
| Claudia (03S) | 06-13 December | 105/90 knots | Track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores high for this storm. |
| Dumile (07S) | 30 December-05 January | 70/70 knots | Forecast for Dumile were very good with low track forecast errors and high skill scores. |
| Emang (09S) | 13-17 January | 35/35 knots | Emang only briefly reached tropical storm status and only one forecast was verified. |
| Felleng (13S) | 26 January- 03 February | 115/90 knots | Felleng was well predicted by the global model. Track errors were lower than last season's average and skill scores positive. |
| Gino (15S) | 11-15 February | 85/75 knots | Track forecast errors for Gino were very low and skill scores very high. |
| Haruna (16S) | 19-25 February | 100/80 knots | The landfall of Haruna was well predicted. Track forecast errors were low. |
| Imelda (21S) | 06-16 April | 85/75 knots | Despite predicting too sharp a recurvature of this storm, track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores were positive. |
| Jamala (24S) | 08-11 May | 45/35 knots | Jamala was only briefly a tropical storm. |
South-West Indian observed tracks in 2012-13
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell (06S) | 11-19 December | 45/40 knots | Mitchell was short-lived, but what few forecasts were verified had a right-of-track and slow bias. |
| Narelle (08S) | 07-14 January | 115/100 knots | There was a left of track bias in forecasts resulting in some predictions of landfall which did not occur. However, track forecast errors at short lead times were still below last season's average. |
| Oswald (11P) | 21-22 January | 35/35 knots | Oswald was only briefly classified as a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified. However, the model predicted the movement of the remnant low down the Queensland coast very well - a track which resulted in heavy rain and flooding. |
| Peta (12S) | 22-23 January | 35/35 knots | Peta was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified. |
| Rusty (17S) | 23-28 February | 95/90 knots | Track forecast errors were very low and skill scores high for this storm. |
| 18S | 24-27 February | 40/30 knots | 18S did not reach tropical storm strength according to BoM Australia and no forecasts were verified. |
| Sandra (19P) | 07-14 March | 110/100 knots | Track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores high for this storm. There was a slight left-of-track bias. |
| Tim (20P) | 13-17 March | 55/50 knots | Track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores high for this storm. |
| Victoria (22S) | 09-12 April | 80/75 knots | Track forecast errors were near to last season's average for this straight-running storm. |
| Zane (23P) | 30 April-02 May | 60/60 knots | Track forecast errors were above last season's average for this storm. |
Indonesian tropical cyclone names
Papua New Guinea tropical cyclone names
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evan (04P) | 11-19 December | 115/100 knots | The global model did a good job in predicting Evan's track towards Samoa and its turn back towards Fiji. There was a right-of-track bias in later forecasts, but track errors were still below last season's average overall. |
| Freda (05P) | 28 December-02 January | 105/100 knots | Forecasts had a marked slow and right-of-track bias resulting in large track forecast errors. |
| Garry (10P) | 20-27 January | 85/80 knots | There was a slow bias in forecasts for Garry, but track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average. |
| Haley (14P) | 10-11 February | 45/40 knots | Haley was short-lived, but track forecast errors were low. |
Western Australian observed tracks in 2012-13
Eastern Australian observed tracks in 2012-13
Note on estimated wind speeds
1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute (JTWC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.
