Observed and forecast tracks: southern hemisphere 2012-13

All tropical cyclones in the southern hemisphere season in 2012-13 are listed below including details of their start and end dates and maximum sustained wind (MSW). Qualitative comments are included on the performance of the Met Office global model in predicting the track of each tropical cyclone.

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

South-West Indian (west of 90°E)
Name & IDStart & end dates1-/10-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Anais (01S) 12-18 October100/105 knotsThere was a slight right-of-track bias in forecasts, but track errors were below last season's average for this storm.
Boldwin (02S)24-26 November55/55 knotsBoldwin was fairly short-lived and the model did not analyse or forecast it well.
Claudia (03S)06-13 December105/90 knotsTrack forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores high for this storm.
Dumile (07S)30 December-05 January70/70 knotsForecast for Dumile were very good with low track forecast errors and high skill scores.
Emang (09S)13-17 January35/35 knotsEmang only briefly reached tropical storm status and only one forecast was verified.
Felleng (13S)26 January- 03 February115/90 knotsFelleng was well predicted by the global model. Track errors were lower than last season's average and skill scores positive.
Gino (15S)11-15 February85/75 knotsTrack forecast errors for Gino were very low and skill scores very high.
Haruna (16S)19-25 February100/80 knotsThe landfall of Haruna was well predicted. Track forecast errors were low.
Imelda (21S)06-16 April85/75 knotsDespite predicting too sharp a recurvature of this storm, track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores were positive.
Jamala (24S)08-11 May45/35 knotsJamala was only briefly a tropical storm.
South-West Indian tropical cyclone names

South-West Indian observed tracks in 2012-13

Australian (90-160°E)
Name & IDStart & end dates 1-/10-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Mitchell (06S)11-19 December45/40 knotsMitchell was short-lived, but what few forecasts were verified had a right-of-track and slow bias.
Narelle (08S)07-14 January115/100 knotsThere was a left of track bias in forecasts resulting in some predictions of landfall which did not occur. However, track forecast errors at short lead times were still below last season's average.
Oswald (11P)21-22 January35/35 knotsOswald was only briefly classified as a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified. However, the model predicted the movement of the remnant low down the Queensland coast very well - a track which resulted in heavy rain and flooding.
Peta (12S)22-23 January35/35 knotsPeta was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.
Rusty (17S)23-28 February95/90 knotsTrack forecast errors were very low and skill scores high for this storm.
18S24-27 February40/30 knots18S did not reach tropical storm strength according to BoM Australia and no forecasts were verified.
Sandra (19P)07-14 March110/100 knotsTrack forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores high for this storm. There was a slight left-of-track bias.
Tim (20P)13-17 March55/50 knotsTrack forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores high for this storm.
Victoria (22S)09-12 April80/75 knotsTrack forecast errors were near to last season's average for this straight-running storm.
Zane (23P)30 April-02 May60/60 knotsTrack forecast errors were above last season's average for this storm.
Australian tropical cyclone names

Indonesian tropical cyclone names

Papua New Guinea tropical cyclone names

Fiji (east of 160°E)
Name & IDStart & end dates 1-/10-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Evan (04P)11-19 December115/100 knotsThe global model did a good job in predicting Evan's track towards Samoa and its turn back towards Fiji. There was a right-of-track bias in later forecasts, but track errors were still below last season's average overall.
Freda (05P)28 December-02 January105/100 knotsForecasts had a marked slow and right-of-track bias resulting in large track forecast errors.
Garry (10P)20-27 January85/80 knotsThere was a slow bias in forecasts for Garry, but track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average.
Haley (14P)10-11 February45/40 knotsHaley was short-lived, but track forecast errors were low.

Fiji tropical cyclone names


Western Australian observed tracks in 2012-13

Eastern Australian observed tracks in 2012-13


Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute (JTWC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)

Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.

Last updated: 17 December 2013