Observed and forecast tracks: southern hemisphere 2013-14

All tropical cyclones in the southern hemisphere season in 2013-14 are listed below including details of their start and end dates and maximum sustained wind (MSW). Qualitative comments are included on the performance of the Met Office global model in predicting the track of each tropical cyclone.

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

South-West Indian (west of 90°E)
Name & IDStart & end dates1-/10-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
01S 27-28 October30/30 knots01S did not attain tropical storm status.
Amara (03S)16-23 December130/110 knotsTrack forecast errors were large due to a failure to predict the recurvature of this storm.
Bejisa (06S)29 December-05 January110/90 knotsThere was a slow and left-of-track bias for this storm which resulted in large track forecast errors.
Colin (08S)09-15 January115/100 knotsThere was a slight right-of-track bias in forecasts, but errors were low for this storm.
Deliwe (09S)16-18 January45/45 knotsDeliwe was short-lived and track forecast errors were a little above last season's average.
Edilson (13S)05-08 February55/55 knotsShort period forecast tracks were good, but a slow bias resulted in large longer lead time errors.
Fobane (14S)06-14 February60/60 knotsTrack forecast errors for this storm were low compared to last season's average. The various turns in the storm's motion were well predicted.
Guito (15S)18-22 February65/60 knotsTrack forecast errors were mostly below last season's average for this storm.
South-West Indian tropical cyclone names

South-West Indian observed tracks in 2013-14

Australian (90-160°E)
Name & IDStart & end dates 1-/10-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Alessia (02S)22-27 November45/40 knotsTrack forecast errors were near to last season's avelues for this storm.
Bruce (04S)17-24 December140/125 knotsTrack errors were mostly quite close to to last season's average for this storm. There was a slight bias towards recurving the storm too soon.
Christine (05S)28-31 December85/85 knotsChristine only lasted a couple of days, but track forecast errors were low.
Dylan (11P)29-31 January55/55 knotsTrack forecast errors were mostly below last season's average for this storm
Edna (12P)01-05 February50/50 knotsEdna was a tropical storm in two phases. Track forecast errors were mostly above last season's average.
Fletcher (-)03-05 February-/35 knotsFletcher was a minimal tropical storm according to the Bureau of Meteorology only and no forecasts were verified.
Gillian (17P)08-25 March140/110 knotsGillian formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria then weakened to a remnant low for many days before reforming in the South Indian Ocean. Track forecast errors were mixed. The reformation was well predicted, but there was a right of track bias in latter forecasts.
Hadi (19P)09-11 March40/40 knotsOnly a few forecasts were verified for this storm and track forecast errors were near to last season's average.
Australian tropical cyclone names

Indonesian tropical cyclone names

Papua New Guinea tropical cyclone names

Fiji (east of 160°E)
Name & IDStart & end dates 1-/10-minute MSWComments on Met Office global model forecasts
Ian (07P)05-14 January125/110 knotsTrack forecast errors at short lead times were near to or below last season's average. However, a failure to predict the rapid movement to higher latitudes in early forecasts resulted in large forecast errors at long lead times.
June (10P)17-19 January40/40 knotsTrack forecast errors were below last season's average for this storm.
Kofi (16P)28 February-04 March50/55 knotsThe track of this storm was fairly well predicted although errors were a little above last season's average.
Lusi (18P)09-13 March70/80 knotsThere was a left of track bias in forecasts for this storm which resulted in errors above last season's average.
Mike (20P)19 March35/35 knotsMike was a short-lived storm and only one forecast was verified.

Fiji tropical cyclone names


Western Australian observed tracks in 2013-14

Eastern Australian observed tracks in 2013-14


Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over one minute (JTWC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)

Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.

Last updated: 28 March 2014