The Met Office has been producing and verifying short-period (up to five to seven days ahead) forecasts for every tropical cyclone since 1988. Verification of the performance of the global model in predicting tropical cyclone tracks has been routinely published on a monthly and seasonal basis during that time.
The links below show the forecast verification for all tropical cyclones during the last few seasons. The 'Observed and forecast tracks' links show forecast tracks for individual tropical cyclones accompanied by comments on the Met Office global model performance. The 'Seasonal verification reports' links show the global model's performance over the season as a whole. The 'Forecast error graphs' links show the long-term trend in track forecast errors since 1988 for various ocean basins as well as comparisons between the Met Office model and other forecasts.
For verification statistics from seasons earlier than those presented here please email email@example.com. For information on current tropical cyclones go to the tropical cyclones warnings and guidance page.
Observed and forecast tracks
|Northern hemisphere 2015||Southern hemisphere 2014-15||Northern hemisphere 2014||Southern hemisphere 2013-14||Northern hemisphere 2013||Southern hemisphere 2012-13||Northern hemisphere 2012||Southern hemisphere 2011-12|
Seasonal verification reports
|Southern hemisphere 2014-15||Northern hemisphere 2014||Southern hemisphere 2013-14||Northern hemisphere 2013||Southern hemisphere 2012-13||Northern hemisphere 2012||Southern hemisphere 2011-12||Northern hemisphere 2011|
|Northern hemisphere||North-west Pacific||North-east Pacific||North Atlantic||North Indian|
|Southern hemisphere||South-west Indian||Australian|
|Met Office v. other models in the Atlantic||Met Office v. other models in the NE Pacific||Met Office v. ECMWF|
The method used to verify the forecast tracks of tropical cyclones (PDF, 437 kB) in Met Office numerical weather prediction models.
Last updated: 9 July 2015