Forecast verification

The Met Office has been producing and verifying short-period (up to five to seven days ahead) forecasts for every tropical cyclone since 1988. Verification of the performance of the global model in predicting tropical cyclone tracks has been routinely published on a monthly and seasonal basis during that time.

The links below show the forecast verification for all tropical cyclones during the last few seasons. The 'Observed and forecast tracks' links show forecast tracks for individual tropical cyclones accompanied by comments on the Met Office global model performance. The 'Seasonal verification reports' links show the global model's performance over the season as a whole. The 'Forecast error graphs' links show the long-term trend in track forecast errors since 1988 for various ocean basins as well as comparisons between the Met Office model and other forecasts.

For verification statistics from seasons earlier than those presented here please email tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. For information on current tropical cyclones go to the tropical cyclones warnings and guidance page.

Verification of short-period forecasts

Observed and forecast tracks

Northern hemisphere 2014Southern hemisphere 2013-14Northern hemisphere 2013Southern hemisphere 2012-13Northern hemisphere 2012Southern hemisphere 2011-12Northern hemisphere 2011Southern hemisphere 2010-11

Seasonal verification reports

Southern hemisphere 2013-14Northern hemisphere 2013Southern hemisphere 2012-13Northern hemisphere 2012Southern hemisphere 2011-12Northern hemisphere 2011Southern hemisphere 2010-11Northern hemisphere 2010
Forecast error graphs
Northern hemisphereNorth-west PacificNorth-east PacificNorth AtlanticNorth Indian
Southern hemisphereSouth-west IndianAustralian
Met Office v. other models in the AtlanticMet Office v. other models in the NE PacificMet Office v. ECMWF

Tropical cyclone forecast track verification method

Method used to verify the forecast tracks of tropical cyclones in the Met Office global model.

Verification of forecast tracks appendix

Last updated: 4 July 2014