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Forecast verification

Forecast verification

The Met Office has been producing and verifying short-period (up to five to seven days ahead) forecasts for every tropical cyclone since 1988. Verification of the performance of the global model in predicting tropical cyclone tracks has been routinely published on a monthly and seasonal basis during that time.

The links below show the forecast verification for all tropical cyclones during the last few seasons. The 'Observed and forecast tracks' links show forecast tracks for individual tropical cyclones accompanied by comments on the Met Office global model performance. The 'Seasonal verification reports' links show the global model's performance over the season as a whole. The 'Forecast error graphs' links show the long-term trend in track forecast errors since 1988 for various ocean basins as well as comparisons between the Met Office model and other forecasts.

For verification statistics from seasons earlier than those presented here please email tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. For information on current tropical cyclones go to the tropical cyclones warnings and guidance page.

Verification of short-period forecasts
Observed and forecast tracks
Northern hemisphere 2012	Southern hemisphere 2011-12	Northern hemisphere 2011	Southern hemisphere 2010-11	Northern hemisphere 2010	Southern hemisphere 2009-10	Northern hemisphere 2009	Southern hemisphere 2008-9
Seasonal verification reports
Northern hemisphere 2011	Southern hemisphere 2010-11	Northern hemisphere 2010	Southern hemisphere 2009-10	Northern hemisphere 2009	Southern hemisphere 2008-9	Northern hemisphere 2008

Forecast error graphs
Northern hemisphere	North-west Pacific	North-east Pacific	North Atlantic	North Indian
Southern hemisphere	South-west Indian	Australian
Met Office v. other models in the Atlantic	Met Office v. other models in the NE Pacific	Met Office v. ECMWF