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Forecast verification

The Met Office has been producing and verifying short-period (up to five to seven days ahead) forecasts for every tropical cyclone since 1988. Verification of the performance of the global model in predicting tropical cyclone tracks has been routinely published on a monthly and seasonal basis during that time.

The links below show the forecast verification for all tropical cyclones during the last few seasons. The 'Observed and forecast tracks' links show forecast tracks for individual tropical cyclones accompanied by comments on the Met Office global model performance. The 'Seasonal verification reports' links show the global model's performance over the season as a whole. The 'Forecast error graphs' links show the long-term trend in track forecast errors since 1988 for various ocean basins as well as comparisons between the Met Office model and other forecasts.

For verification statistics from seasons earlier than those presented here please email tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. For information on current tropical cyclones go to the Tropical cyclones warnings and guidance page.

Verification of short-period forecasts

Observed and forecast tracks (includes currently active seasons)

Northern hemisphere 2017 Southern hemisphere 2016-17 Northern hemisphere 2016 Southern hemisphere 2015-16 Northern hemisphere 2015 Southern hemisphere 2014-15

Seasonal verification reports (produced after the end of each season)

Southern hemisphere 2016-17 Northern hemisphere 2016 Southern hemisphere 2015-16 Northern hemisphere 2015 Southern hemisphere 2014-15 Northern hemisphere 2014
Forecast error graphs
Northern hemisphere North-west Pacific North-east Pacific North Atlantic North Indian
Southern hemisphere South-west Indian Australian    
North Atlantic - produced by National Hurricane Center North-East Pacific - produced by National Hurricane Center Met Office v. ECMWF    

Tropical cyclone tracking and forecast verification method

The method used to track tropical cyclones and verify forecasts in Met Office models is available in this publication:

Heming, J.T., 2016. Tropical cyclone tracking and verification techniques for Met Office numerical weather prediction models. Meteorological Applications.

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