Individual tropical cyclone forecast tracks
Individual charts of all tropical cyclones from the last few years are available here. Select the appropriate link and all individual tropical cyclones in that season will be listed. Select the name to see a chart of the observed track together with 24-hourly forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. The maximum forecast range of the global model is five days.
Observed positions are taken from real time advisories from tropical cyclone warning centres. Forecast tracks are only produced for cyclones which reach tropical storm strength (winds greater than 34 knots). This page is updated approximately once a month usually during the first week of the month. For information on current tropical cyclones go to the tropical cyclone warnings and guidance page.
| Observed and forecast tracks | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern hemisphere | ||||||
| 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | |
| Southern hemisphere | ||||||
| 2007-8 | 2006-7 | 2005-6 | 2004-5 | 2003-4 | 2002-3 | |
Monthly verification
Since January 1993 the Met Office has issued a document entitled "Monthly Summary of Tropical Cyclone Activity and Forecasts" which is sent to many individuals and meteorological centres around the globe with an interest in the forecasting of tropical cyclones. It contains information on the month's tropical cyclone tracks and statistics and charts relating to the performance of the Met Office global model in forecasting the track of each storm. Editions for the last few years are included below.
| Monthly summary of tropical cyclone activity and forecasts | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
| January | January | January | January | January | January |
| February | February | February | February | February | February |
| March | March | March | March | March | March |
| April | April | April | April | April | April |
| May | May | May | May | May | May |
| June | June | June | June | June | June |
| July | July | July | July | July | July |
| August | August | August | August | August | August |
| September | September | September | September | September | September |
| October | October | October | October | October | October |
| November | November | November | November | November | November |
| December | December | December | December | December | December |
June and December bulletins contain preliminary summaries of the southern and northern hemisphere seasons respectively.
Seasonal verification
At the end of each tropical cyclone season a report is published summarising all tropical cyclone activity together with forecast verification statistics.
| Seasonal tropical cyclone activity and forecasts | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern hemisphere | ||||||
| 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
| 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | |
| Southern hemisphere | ||||||
| 2007-8 | 2006-7 | 2005-6 | 2004-5 | 2003-4 | 2002-3 | 2001-2 |
| 2000-1 | 1999-2000 | 1998-9 | 1997-8 | 1996-7 | 1995-6 | 1994-5 |
Forecast error graphs
Graphs of mean forecast positional errors since 1988, when track verification records began, are shown below.
Forecast error graphs
Tropical cyclone forecast track verification method
Method used to verify the forecast tracks of tropical cyclones in the Met Office global model.