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Comparing forecast accuracy

We continue to increase our forecast accuracy through research, investment in satellite remote sensing and supercomputing technology.

For many years we have verified our forecasts by comparing forecasts of mean sea-level pressure with subsequent model analyses of mean sea-level pressure. These comparisons are made over an area covering the North Atlantic; most of western Europe, and north-eastern parts of North America. From this long-term comparison an average forecast error can be calculated.

The graph shows how many days into a forecast period this average error is reached compared to a baseline in 1980. This graph shows that a four-day forecast today is more accurate than a one-day forecast in 1980.

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