196 FXXT11 EGRR 140411 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR SOUTH PACIFIC AND SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEANS GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 14.02.2025 TROPICAL CYCLONE ZELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2S 118.6E LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 14.02.2025 0 19.2S 118.6E 923 111 1200UTC 14.02.2025 12 21.0S 119.2E 971 52 0000UTC 15.02.2025 24 22.6S 119.1E 997 26 1200UTC 15.02.2025 36 25.0S 118.3E 1001 23 0000UTC 16.02.2025 48 26.4S 117.4E 1003 20 1200UTC 16.02.2025 60 CEASED TRACKING TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 28.4S 131.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 14.02.2025 0 28.4S 131.3W 1003 22 1200UTC 14.02.2025 12 28.5S 130.4W 1005 26 0000UTC 15.02.2025 24 29.2S 128.9W 1006 21 1200UTC 15.02.2025 36 30.0S 127.5W 1006 21 0000UTC 16.02.2025 48 CEASED TRACKING TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 22.4S 170.2E LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 14.02.2025 0 22.4S 170.2E 999 33 1200UTC 14.02.2025 12 23.0S 171.6E 996 44 0000UTC 15.02.2025 24 24.7S 174.6E 994 38 1200UTC 15.02.2025 36 27.6S 175.5E 991 42 0000UTC 16.02.2025 48 29.7S 176.7E 996 36 1200UTC 16.02.2025 60 30.8S 176.3E 1000 31 0000UTC 17.02.2025 72 32.1S 176.2E 1001 30 1200UTC 17.02.2025 84 CEASED TRACKING NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 20.3S 158.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 17.02.2025 72 20.3S 158.7W 1003 31 1200UTC 17.02.2025 84 19.6S 156.3W 1001 29 0000UTC 18.02.2025 96 20.8S 152.3W 999 34 1200UTC 18.02.2025 108 22.8S 148.9W 1000 35 0000UTC 19.02.2025 120 25.6S 145.3W 1002 34 1200UTC 19.02.2025 132 29.9S 141.1W 1005 31 0000UTC 20.02.2025 144 34.7S 138.5W 1007 26 1200UTC 20.02.2025 156 37.5S 136.0W 1007 24 0000UTC 21.02.2025 168 38.0S 134.0W 1008 23 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 20.5S 154.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 20.02.2025 144 22.7S 153.7W 1004 31 1200UTC 20.02.2025 156 24.6S 153.3W 1005 29 0000UTC 21.02.2025 168 26.8S 151.6W 1006 31 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 9.0S 115.2E LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 21.02.2025 168 9.0S 115.2E 1007 25 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 140411