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Extended outlook

2100 UTC Sunday 19 August to 2100 UTC Wednesday 22 August 2018

Issued by the Met Office, on behalf of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency, at 172051 UTC

Cullercoats

This period is expected to see a relatively slack pressure pattern over the North Sea, but with low confidence in detail by Tuesday and Wednesday. There are two features that carry greater confidence. Firstly, an east-west aligned high pressure ridge across north Fitzroy and Biscay is likely to amplify to affect the southern portion of Cullercoats later, while a shallow low will lie near Denmark Strait early next week. Other low pressure areas are more likely to be relatively short-lived and shallow where present, with significant winds not expected, but note low confidence. Strong winds are possible in southern Cullercoats to start the four-day period, perhaps more likely in German Bight, Humber, and Thames, however these winds should moderate into Monday. Hazardous winds are not likely for Cullercoats for the remainder of the period, but there is a low risk of a deepening low pressure and gales in the north on Wednesday

Niton

Through the period an east-west aligned ridge of high pressure, centred across North Fitzroy and Biscay, will amplify to affect much of Niton through the period, however the synoptic pattern as a whole carries greater than average uncertainty. In addition to this ridge of high pressure, a shallow low looks to become resident near Denmark Strait early next week. Otherwise, synoptic features lying to the far north of Niton are likely to be relatively short-lived and shallow where present, with hazardous winds generally not expected, but with low confidence in the detail. South Fitzroy may see occasionally strong winds through the period, and occasional strong winds are possible in the eastern English Channel, the Dover Strait and Thames to start the four-day period, most likely in Thames, however these winds should moderate into Monday, then apart from South Fitzroy, hazardous winds are not expected

Portpatrick

This period is expected to see a relatively slack pressure pattern over Portpatrick, but with low confidence in detail by Tuesday and Wednesday. There are two features that carry greater confidence. Firstly, an east-west aligned high pressure ridge across north Fitzroy and Biscay is likely to amplify to affect the southern sea areas, while a shallow low will lie near Denmark Strait early next week. Other low pressure areas are more likely to be relatively short-lived and shallow where present, with significant winds not expected, but note low confidence. Strong winds are possible in Southeast Iceland on Sunday evening and Monday. There is some indication that Shannon and Rockall may see further strong winds on Tuesday, otherwise strong winds are not likely. However, there is the possibility of a deepening low pressure running northeastwards with gales on Tuesday and Wednesday, but with low confidence

Marine weather extended outlook for the next 3 to 5 days

The extended outlooks are issued once a day, at 2300 GMT and cover the next 3 to 5 days.

For the extended outlooks the waters surrounding the British Isles are divided into three areas; Cullercoats, Portpatrick and Niton. These three areas reflect the coverage areas of the UK's Navtex transmitters, which overlap in some areas.

The extended outlook forecast contains details of the likelihood of gales or storms, a general synopsis and a general forecast for the area of coverage of each Navtex transmitter.

 

In the UK, the Maritime & Coastguard Agency (MCA) is responsible for the provision of Maritime Safety Information (MSI) to ships at sea, which includes the broadcast of warnings and forecasts. The Met Office initiates warnings and prepares routine forecasts for dissemination on behalf of the MCA.

Caution: The internet is not part of the Maritime Safety Information system and should never be relied upon as the only means to obtain the latest forecast and warning information. Access to the service may be interrupted or delayed from time to time, updates may also be delayed. Please refer to GMDSS services, INMARSAT SafetyNET or international NAVTEX for the latest information. When using these web pages, always check that the page on your screen is not from your cache. Use the Refresh or Reload button if in any doubt.

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