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Lake District

Confidence

High for easterly flow holding sway through the coming days and for wintry precipitation being largely confined to the very highest peaks from Thursday. Medium for the extent and timing of the showers within the flow.

  • This evening
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Further outlook

Tuesday 20 November 2018

Sunrise: 07:51   Sunset: 16:05
Moon phase: Waxing gibbous

Showers merging to longer periods of rain and summit snow towards late evening, with hill fog becoming extensive, combining with gales over the summits and a severe chill effect to bring some hazardous conditions.

Wednesday 21 November 2018

Weather hazards

Gales High likelihood Hide detail

Gale force winds (gusts over 50mph) make walking difficult and strenuous with a potential to be blown over by gusts. There is often a marked increase in winds through cols or on exposed ridges and summits. Distances can take longer to cover and compass bearings become harder to follow accurately.

Blizzards Medium likelihood Show detail

Blizzards and whiteouts present challenging and serious conditions due to a combination of falling or blowing snow, strong winds and cold temperatures. They can be highly disorientating, often resulting in near-zero visibility with limited or no visual references and no distinction between ground and sky. Cliff edges and cornices may not be apparent, even close up. These conditions require very good navigational skills.

Severe chill effect Medium likelihood Show detail

Wind significantly lowers the ‘feels-like’ temperature relative to the actual temperature, with even moderate winds significantly adding to the chilling effect. Strong winds can result in a severe and debilitating wind chill many degrees below the actual temperature. This effect will be enhanced in rain or wet snow. Without protection, prolonged exposure could result in frost nip or frostbite on exposed parts of the body and/or hypothermia.

Poor visibility Low likelihood Show detail

Poor visibility presents challenging route finding conditions. Visibility could be significantly less than 50 metres in all directions with few or no visual references, especially on featureless moors or plateaux. Distances become hard to judge and cliff or cornice edges can be difficult to recognise. These conditions require good navigational skills. There is a risk of white-out conditions when mist or fog is combined with extensive snow cover.

Headline

Very difficult conditions initially with periods of rain and summits snow, hill fog and gales at height, but improving from early morning.

Weather at 800m

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00
Heavy snow Heavy snow Heavy snow Light snow Light snow shower day Sunny intervals Partly cloudy night Clear night
90% 80% 70% 60% 30% 10% 00% 00%
Chance of precipitation
800 700 600 600 600 600 600 500
Freezing level (m)
The level above which snow is expected to settle or the ground is expected to be frozen

Wind speed and direction (mph) By altitude above mean sea level

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00
900m NE 34 42 E 41 50 E 39 48 E 34 43 SE 36 45 SE 36 45 SE 38 47 SE 33 41
600m NE 20 26 E 26 34 E 28 37 E 25 34 SE 29 39 SE 29 39 SE 29 39 SE 28 37
300m NE 6 23 E 10 30 E 11 31 E 12 30 SE 13 33 SE 13 34 SE 13 33 SE 12 31
Valley NE 7 26 NE 11 33 E 10 31 E 10 29 SE 11 30 SE 11 31 E 10 30 E 11 29

Temperature (°C) By altitude above mean sea level

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00
900m -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
600m 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
300m 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2
Valley 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4

Feels like temperature (°C) By altitude above mean sea level

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00
900m -10 -11 -11 -11 -11 -12 -11 -11
600m -5 -7 -7 -7 -8 -8 -8 -8
300m 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -3
Valley 4 2 1 1 2 2 1 1
Sunrise: 07:53   Sunset: 16:03
Moon phase: Waxing gibbous

Weather

Some hazardous conditions at first with periods of rain and sleet, falling as snow from around 450-600m, with cloud bases extensive and covering most summits, particularly across eastern ranges. Conditions look set to improve from early morning with outbreaks dwindling to a few well scattered showers by mid to late morning, with most staying dry and seeing the weak sunny spells increasing through the afternoon. Staying largely dry and clear for the evening.

Chance of cloud-free mountain/hill tops at 800m

Initially 20% in east and 40% in west with bases extensive from around 550m and 750m respectively, with patches lower across eastern aspects. Increasing from early morning becoming 90% by mid-afternoon as the cloud lifts and breaks.

Visibility

Moderate or poor at first, occasionally very poor in wintry precipitation, becoming good or very good by early afternoon.

Meteorologist's view

Some hazardous conditions initially with blizzards over the higher peaks. Conditions improving from early morning, but chill effect continuing at height.

Ground conditions

No recent ground conditions report available.

Thursday 22 November 2018

Sunrise: 07:55   Sunset: 16:02
Moon phase: Full

Weather

Showers spreading for the east overnight, and continuing through the day and evening. The bulk of these will be focused over the eastern peaks, falling as rain at all levels, but perhaps turning sleety at times across Scafell Pike.

Maximum wind speed expected

East to Southeast mean speed initially 45-50mph over the highest peaks with gusts reaching 60-65mph, easing slightly from mid-morning.

Chance of cloud-free mountain/hill tops at 800m

90% at first, falling by mid-morning to 25% across eastern peaks and 60% for western peaks as bases lower to 550m and 850m respectively.

Temperature

  • At 800m Minus 1 C rising Plus 1C
  • Valley Zero C rising 8C during the afternoon
  • Freezing level 600m rising 1000m

Visibility

Good or very good becoming moderate or poor in showers.

Friday 23 November 2018

Sunrise: 07:57   Sunset: 16:01
Moon phase: Full

Some scattered showers mainly focused across eastern ranges and falling as sleet and snow over highest summits,. Winds relatively light. Freezing around 1000m.

Saturday 24 November 2018

Sunrise: 07:59   Sunset: 16:00
Moon phase: Full

West mainly dry with best of the weak sunshine. East cloudier with showers, these turning more frequent later and falling as sleet and snow across highest summits. Winds mostly light. Freezing level near highest summits.

Sunday 25 November 2018

Sunrise: 08:00   Sunset: 15:59
Moon phase: Waning gibbous

Rather cloudy with showers or longer periods of rain, with sleet and snow across highest summits, with west seeing the best of the limited shelter. Winds mostly light. Freezing level near highest summits.

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