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North Grampian

Confidence

High for Sunday, falling low for the rest of the period with significant uncertainties in the position of the boundary between mild and cold airmasses.

  • This evening
  • Sunday
  • Monday
  • Further outlook

Saturday 18 November 2017

Sunrise: 08:02   Sunset: 15:56
Moon phase: New

A few showers possible at first in the north this evening with snow above about 500m, otherwise a dry evening with clear spells and a frost developing in the glens. Storm force winds at first on the plateau gradually easing gale to severe gale by midnight, with a severe wind chill.

Sunday 19 November 2017

Weather hazards

Severe chill effect High likelihood Hide detail

Wind significantly lowers the ‘feels-like’ temperature relative to the actual temperature, with even moderate winds significantly adding to the chilling effect. Strong winds can result in a severe and debilitating wind chill many degrees below the actual temperature. This effect will be enhanced in rain or wet snow. Without protection, prolonged exposure could result in frost nip or frostbite on exposed parts of the body and/or hypothermia.

Gales Medium likelihood Show detail

Progress will be impeded by very strong winds. Walking will be difficult and strenuous at times with a potential for one to be blown over in gusts. There can be a marked increase in winds through cols or on exposed ridges and summits. Distances often take longer to cover with compass bearings becoming more difficult to follow accurately.

Poor visibility Medium likelihood Show detail

Poor visibility presents challenging route finding conditions. Visibility could be significantly less than 50 metres in all directions with few or no visual references, especially on featureless moors or plateaux. Distances become hard to judge and cliff or cornice edges can be difficult to recognise. These conditions require good navigational skills. There is a risk of white-out conditions when mist or fog is combined with extensive snow cover.

Heavy snow Low likelihood Show detail

Expect snow to rapidly accumulate with deep drifts also possible during windy conditions. Progress will be time consuming and physically strenuous, which will significantly affect the distance one is able to travel on foot. Paths will become hidden and difficult to follow, while very poor visibility during snowfall will make route-finding challenging. A heightened avalanche risk is likely and avalanche reports should be consulted where available.

Forecast

A sunny start, gradually clouding over, with some persistent rain and hill snow in the evening.

Weather at 800m

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00
Clear night Clear night Clear night Sunny day Cloudy Overcast Light snow Heavy snow
00% 00% 00% 00% 00% 20% 40% 80%
Chance of precipitation
600 500 500 500 500 600 600 600
Freezing level (m)
The level above which snow is expected to settle or the ground is expected to be frozen

Wind speed and direction (mph) By altitude above mean sea level

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00
1100m NW 34 43 NW 31 39 NW 25 31 NW 18 23 W 17 21 W 16 21 SW 10 13 S 14 18
900m NW 23 31 NW 21 28 NW 16 22 W 12 16 SW 12 16 SW 13 16 SW 9 11 S 9 11
600m W 11 19 W 10 17 W 9 15 SW 7 12 W 7 12 SW 8 12 SW 5 9 E 4 7
300m W 3 12 W 3 9 W 4 9 SW 3 8 SW 4 12 SW 3 10 SW 4 9 SE 2 4
Glen W 4 18 W 3 16 W 4 13 W 3 12 SW 5 13 SW 5 12 SW 4 10 S 3 7

Temperature (°C) By altitude above mean sea level

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00
1100m -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -4 -4
900m -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1
600m 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0
300m 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
Glen 2 1 1 2 4 4 3 2

Feels like temperature (°C) By altitude above mean sea level

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00
1100m -15 -15 -14 -13 -12 -12 -10 -11
900m -10 -10 -9 -8 -7 -7 -6 -5
600m -5 -5 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2
300m -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 0 0
Glen -1 -1 -2 -1 2 2 0 0
Sunrise: 08:04   Sunset: 15:55
Moon phase: New

Weather

Clear spells overnight and with light winds in the glens this will lead to a cold frosty start. Some sunny spells in the morning, with high cloud gradually spilling over from the west through the day. Eventually this will be thick enough to block out the sun, then after dark some outbreaks of snow will edge in towards Ben Alder and Creag Meagaidh. This will extend northeast across the rest of the area during the evening becoming more persistent and occasionally heavy and leading to a fairly widespread cover above about 750m by midnight. At lower levels, some early snow down as low as 400m but tending to rise up to 600m or so during the evening.

Chance of cloud-free mountain/hill tops at 800m

90% or more overnight, in the morning and into the early afternoon. Starting to fall to 70% around dusk with some patches of cloud starting to lower onto southwestern summits then falling to 20% by mid to late evening and less than 10% by midnight as cloud falls below 300m in places.

Visibility

Very good overnight and by daylight with distant hills easily seen, though light becoming flat as higher cloud thickens in the afternoon. Then falling moderate with the start of the snow and then poor as it becomes a bit heavier later in the evening and hill fog will also develop. Severe navigational difficulties to end the evening.

Met Office Aberdeen meteorologist's view

Glen temperatures overnight could be down to Minus 3 in the south. Plateau winds may be nearer the 50-60mph gust mark into the early hours.

Monday 20 November 2017

Sunrise: 08:06   Sunset: 15:53
Moon phase: New

Weather

Cloudy with further outbreaks of rain, with snow above 700-800m, lasting into the morning, with some fresh new falls, and quite deep on the higher parts of the Plateau. It will then ease off from mid to late morning with just a few lighter flurries in the afternoon and evening, though starting to fall to 500-600m in the north.

Temperature

  • At 800m Plus 1 Celsius falling Minus 1 in the evening.
  • Glen Peaking at around 4 Celsius falling to Plus 1 in the evening.
  • Freezing level 900m falling 700m in the evening.

Visibility

Away from the cloud moderate to poor visibility overnight and in the morning in rain and snow then mainly good as it becomes drier.

Chance of cloud-free mountain/hill tops at 800m

10% rising 20% during the day, with a good deal of low cloud persisting down to about 600m with some lower patches.

Maximum wind speed expected

Southerly 30 gusts 45mph in the early hours, strong enough to bring some blizzard conditions to start the day, the winds turning easterly during the day and easing 20 gusts 30mph.

Tuesday 21 November 2017

Sunrise: 08:08   Sunset: 15:52
Moon phase: New

A cold and cloudy day with some showery rain sleet and snow. The snow mainly above 600m in the south but falling to 300-400m in the north. Hill fog will remain a navigational hazard while a fresh to strong easterly breeze could bring blizzard conditions to the summits.

Wednesday 22 November 2017

Sunrise: 08:10   Sunset: 15:50
Moon phase: Waxing crescent

Confidence now falls markedly in the forecast. It may well start dry before rain and hill snow spread from the south along with strengthening northeasterly winds. The main uncertainty is whether less cold air will spread up from the south later in the day.

Thursday 23 November 2017

Sunrise: 08:13   Sunset: 15:49
Moon phase: Waxing crescent

Confidence remains low in the forecast, as cold northeasterly winds battle mild southwesterly winds in the vicinity of northern Britain. This means that it is likely to stay unsettled with further rain and hill snow, heavy at times. The snow level is uncertain but could be low enough to bring snow to quite low levels and the risk of blizzards on the tops is high, as is the risk of gales.

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