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North Grampian

Confidence

High for the rather unsettled and showery conditions over the run-up to Christmas. Low regarding more persistent rain and snow on Friday, and on Sunday.

  • This evening
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Further outlook

Tuesday 18 December 2018

Sunrise: 08:50   Sunset: 15:32
Moon phase: Waxing gibbous

Rather cloudy with some hill fog but other than a few light showers it will be dry. A few clear spells developing in shelter in the west later. Freezing levels will gradually lower down to 1100m so any showers will fall as snow on the higher Munro tops.

Wednesday 19 December 2018

Weather hazards

Gales High likelihood Hide detail

Gale force winds (gusts over 50mph) make walking difficult and strenuous with a potential to be blown over by gusts. There is often a marked increase in winds through cols or on exposed ridges and summits. Distances can take longer to cover and compass bearings become harder to follow accurately.

Severe chill effect High likelihood Show detail

Wind significantly lowers the ‘feels-like’ temperature relative to the actual temperature, with even moderate winds significantly adding to the chilling effect. Strong winds can result in a severe and debilitating wind chill many degrees below the actual temperature. This effect will be enhanced in rain or wet snow. Without protection, prolonged exposure could result in frost nip or frostbite on exposed parts of the body and/or hypothermia.

Poor visibility High likelihood Show detail

Poor visibility presents challenging route finding conditions. Visibility could be significantly less than 50 metres in all directions with few or no visual references, especially on featureless moors or plateaux. Distances become hard to judge and cliff or cornice edges can be difficult to recognise. These conditions require good navigational skills. There is a risk of white-out conditions when mist or fog is combined with extensive snow cover.

Blizzards Low likelihood Show detail

Blizzards and whiteouts present challenging and serious conditions due to a combination of falling or blowing snow, strong winds and cold temperatures. They can be highly disorientating, often resulting in near-zero visibility with limited or no visual references and no distinction between ground and sky. Cliff edges and cornices may not be apparent, even close up. These conditions require very good navigational skills.

Heavy snow Low likelihood Show detail

Heavy snow can lead to rapid changes in underfoot conditions and paths may become treacherous or hidden. It also brings very poor visibility and often makes navigation much more challenging. When deep snow accumulates progress is often time consuming and strenuous, significantly affecting the distance one can travel on foot. Deep drifts can develop if snow is combined with strong winds. A heightened avalanche risk is possible and avalanche reports should be consulted where available.

Storm force winds Low likelihood Show detail

Storm force winds (gusts over 70mph) make walking very strenuous with any mobility virtually impossible over exposed ground. Where these conditions occur there is a high risk of being blown over and even standing may be impossible at times with a risk of being blown off one’s feet. Basic tasks such as using a map, eating, putting on extra clothing or communication become extremely difficult away from any shelter.

Headline

Daylight hours will be predominantly dry, quite bright with some sunshine in places, though some hills exposed to the south will remain cloudier with the chance of the odd shower, falling as snow on the higher hills. With summit gales and sub-zero temperatures there will be a severe wind chill. Showers will become more frequent after dark.

Weather at 800m

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00
Partly cloudy night Partly cloudy night Partly cloudy night Sunny intervals Cloudy Overcast Light snow Light snow
10% 10% <05% 10% 10% 20% 60% 60%
Chance of precipitation
1,100 1,000 900 800 800 900 900 900
Freezing level (m)
The level above which snow is expected to settle or the ground is expected to be frozen

Wind speed and direction (mph) By altitude above mean sea level

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00
1300m S 26 34 S 24 31 S 28 36 S 35 46 S 35 47 S 37 48 S 32 42 SE 29 38
900m S 23 31 S 21 28 S 25 32 S 33 44 S 33 46 S 33 45 S 28 38 S 24 33
600m S 11 21 S 12 21 S 13 24 S 18 34 S 20 36 S 18 34 S 15 28 SE 12 23
300m SW 3 8 S 5 14 S 5 14 S 6 19 S 9 23 S 7 22 S 6 17 S 6 15
Glen SW 3 12 SW 4 12 SW 3 11 S 5 16 S 6 19 SW 6 17 S 4 14 S 4 12

Temperature (°C) By altitude above mean sea level

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00
1300m -2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3
900m 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
600m 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
300m 4 4 3 2 4 4 3 3
Glen 5 4 3 2 5 4 4 3

Feels like temperature (°C) By altitude above mean sea level

00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00
1300m -10 -10 -11 -13 -14 -13 -12 -12
900m -5 -5 -7 -8 -8 -8 -8 -7
600m 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3
300m 2 1 1 -1 1 1 0 0
Glen 3 2 1 -1 2 2 1 1
Sunrise: 08:51   Sunset: 15:32
Moon phase: Waxing gibbous

Weather

Mostly dry overnight with cloud breaking further to allow some clear spells though some hills exposed to the south will stay cloudy with the odd light shower, wintry on the Munros. Daylight hours will be predominantly dry, quite bright with some sunshine in places, though once some hills exposed to the south will remain cloudier with the chance of the odd shower, falling as snow on the higher hills, perhaps down to 750m. In the evening the showers will become more widespread with some heavier ones developing too, and strong summit winds may allow some temporary blizzard conditions to develop.

Chance of cloud-free mountain/hill tops at 800m

Ranging from 30% in the south, best chance below 1000m, to 80% in the northeast with the hills around Strathdon likely to be in the clear during daylight. However chances falling away during the evening as more general cloud at 450-600m arrives.

Visibility

During the day mainly good away from summit cloud, falling moderate to poor in showers in the evening.

Met Office Aberdeen meteorologist's view

Peak summit winds are likely to be into the 60s mph.

Thursday 20 December 2018

Sunrise: 08:51   Sunset: 15:33
Moon phase: Waxing gibbous

Weather

Showers dying out in the early hours, leaving a lot of cloud over most of the area but clear spells and a frost at low levels in the north. The morning looks mainly dry with some sunshine developing for most but cloud and showers will spread from the west falling as snow above about 800m.

Maximum wind speed expected

Southerly 20 gusts 30mph becoming southwest 30 gusts 40mph in the afternoon.

Chance of cloud-free mountain/hill tops at 800m

30% increasing 60% in the morning, though higher in the northeast with cloud well broken for a time here. Back down to 30% during the afternoon and evening as bands of showers move through.

Temperature

  • At 800m Plus 1 Celsius
  • Glen Minus 3 at first in the north but generally Plus 2 rising to Plus 6 Celsius.
  • Freezing level 900m

Visibility

Often good away from cloud and showers, very good in the northeast, falling moderate in showers and poor in snow showers.

Friday 21 December 2018

Sunrise: 08:52   Sunset: 15:33
Moon phase: Full

Cloudy with more persistent rain sleet and snow. The snow level uncertain but could be as low as 500m for a time associated with southeasterly gales and a blizzard risk before rising to 800m.

Saturday 22 December 2018

Sunrise: 08:53   Sunset: 15:34
Moon phase: Full

Bright with a few showers mainly in the west falling as snow above 900m. Strong to gale westerly winds.

Sunday 23 December 2018

Sunrise: 08:53   Sunset: 15:34
Moon phase: Full

Low confidence - but most likely to stay bright with a few showers, with snow on the tops, but a chance of some longer spells of rain and hill snow.

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