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Long Range Forecast

  • UK 6-30 days

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Mar 2019 to Tuesday 2 Apr 2019:

Confidence in details is low for Sunday and Monday, but southern districts will probably be dry with sunny spells whilst further north blustery showers may be wintry in the far north and northwest where there's also a risk of gales. Rather cold in the north with some overnight frost, with temperatures closer to normal in the south. During the last week of March and into early April, there is likely to be a good deal of dry weather across central and southeastern parts of the UK, with bright or sunny spells. It will be more changeable across the northwest, with rain and strong winds from time to time. Temperatures will be mainly near normal in the north, and with some warmer periods in the southeast. .

UK Outlook for Wednesday 3 Apr 2019 to Wednesday 17 Apr 2019:

There is considerable uncertainty in the forecast during this period, and confidence is currently low. However, during the first week of April it does look most likely that we will see changeable conditions becoming established across the UK once again. Wet and windy weather may be interspersed with drier and brighter spells, with the most unsettled conditions still probable in the north. By the middle of the month, there is a possibility that we may see a return of more widely settled weather. Temperatures probably starting off a little warmer than average, but they may fall nearer to normal for a time early in the month

Updated: 03:05 on Wed 20 Mar 2019 GMT

Long range forecast for the UK over the next 6-30 days

Long-range weather prediction

Predicting how the weather will behave over the coming hours, days, weeks and months is a complex undertaking. Each timescale presents its own challenges. In an ideal world, everyone would like to know exactly what the weather will do so we can make definite plans. Nature, however, doesn't work like that. When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Medium range (6 - 15 days)

Medium-range weather forecasts cover anything from around three to 10-days ahead. The UK medium-range outlook is covered in the five-day location and map-based forecasts as well as the meteorologist written forecasts. The 6-10 day text forecasts provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK, including significant changes in the type of weather. It also provides a risk assessment of severe weather, such as heavy rainfall, severe gales or an extended period of high or low temperatures.

Extended-range (10 - 30 days)

Extended-range weather forecasts cover periods between 10 and 30-days ahead. This covers the end of our 6-15 day text forecast and the whole of our 16-30 day text forecast. If you are after a 14-day weather forecast then our 6-15 day text forecast will provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK. The 16-30 day text outlook (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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