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Long Range Forecast

  • UK 6-30 days

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Saturday 26 May 2018 to Monday 4 Jun 2018:

The Bank Holiday weekend will be mostly fine and sunny, after any early mist and fog has cleared. Scattered thunderstorms could affect southern and central areas at times however, with mist and low cloud possibly affecting the east coast. It will be warm or very warm in the south and west, but often much cooler near eastern coasts. There will also be a brisk easterly wind across southern areas. Similar conditions will prevail into next week, but some longer spells of heavy, thundery rain may move northwards into central parts. Into the beginning of June confidence is low, but it will most likely remain overall drier and warmer than average. However there will be an increasing chance of more unsettled, cooler conditions developing.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Jun 2018 to Tuesday 19 Jun 2018:

For the beginning of June there is very low confidence in the type of weather pattern expected across the UK. Conditions are likely to become generally more unsettled as we head towards the middle of the month, with periods of rain or showers being more frequent and widespread. There will still be some more settled spells at times, these most likely in the south and southeast. Temperatures will probably be near or slightly above normal, but there is continued potential for further very warm spells.

Updated: 15:00 on Mon 21 May 2018 BST

Long range forecast for the UK over the next 6-30 days

Long-range weather prediction

Predicting how the weather will behave over the coming hours, days, weeks and months is a complex undertaking. Each timescale presents its own challenges. In an ideal world, everyone would like to know exactly what the weather will do so we can make definite plans. Nature, however, doesn't work like that. When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Medium range (6 - 15 days)

Medium-range weather forecasts cover anything from around three to 10-days ahead. The UK medium-range outlook is covered in the five-day location and map-based forecasts as well as the meteorologist written forecasts. The 6-10 day text forecasts provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK, including significant changes in the type of weather. It also provides a risk assessment of severe weather, such as heavy rainfall, severe gales or an extended period of high or low temperatures.

Extended-range (10 - 30 days)

Extended-range weather forecasts cover periods between 10 and 30-days ahead. This covers the end of our 6-15 day text forecast and the whole of our 16-30 day text forecast. If you are after a 14-day weather forecast then our 6-15 day text forecast will provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK. The 16-30 day text outlook (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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