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Long Range Forecast

  • UK 6-30 days

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Friday 26 Jan 2018 to Sunday 4 Feb 2018:

After a bright but brief colder and showery interlude at the end of the week with frost likely overnight it will become milder and changeable through the weekend. This means that many of us will see brighter, showery periods interspersed with bands of cloud and rain. Rain is likely to be heaviest in northern and western parts, and it will be driest in the south and east. Also, it will be windy at times particularly in the northwest. However, as we head into the start of February, it is likely to turn mainly dry and perhaps a touch colder, particularly in the south, with overnight frost and fog more likely here. Winds are expected to ease overall with strong winds becoming mostly restricted to the north.

UK Outlook for Monday 5 Feb 2018 to Monday 19 Feb 2018:

Early February is likely to bring relatively settled conditions with a good deal of dry weather, relatively light winds and frost and fog expected to form overnight. However spells of wet and windy weather are still likely across the north. There is considerable uncertainty at this stage, however, as we head towards the middle of February we are most likely to see short spells of wet and windy weather move across the UK, interspersed with colder, brighter and drier interludes. Throughout this period temperatures are expected to average out at close to normal but it will be colder at times during the periods of more settled weather

Updated: 14:34 on Sun 21 Jan 2018 GMT

Long range forecast for the UK over the next 6-30 days

Long-range weather prediction

Predicting how the weather will behave over the coming hours, days, weeks and months is a complex undertaking. Each timescale presents its own challenges. In an ideal world, everyone would like to know exactly what the weather will do so we can make definite plans. Nature, however, doesn't work like that. When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Medium range (6 - 15 days)

Medium-range weather forecasts cover anything from around three to 10-days ahead. The UK medium-range outlook is covered in the five-day location and map-based forecasts as well as the meteorologist written forecasts. The 6-10 day text forecasts provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK, including significant changes in the type of weather. It also provides a risk assessment of severe weather, such as heavy rainfall, severe gales or an extended period of high or low temperatures.

Extended-range (10 - 30 days)

Extended-range weather forecasts cover periods between 10 and 30-days ahead. This covers the end of our 6-15 day text forecast and the whole of our 16-30 day text forecast. If you are after a 14-day weather forecast then our 6-15 day text forecast will provide a broad description of the weather likely to be affecting the UK. The 16-30 day text outlook (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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