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Weather verification

The graph gives an indication of our forecast accuracy at a number of locations across the country. You can compare the forecast we made at 6pm yesterday to the actual temperature and weather in three hour steps through the day.

This comparison is a simple visual guide to the accuracy of our forecasts, not a robust scientific verification.

Our forecasts are provided in three-hourly time steps and represent the likely conditions during that three hour period. For example, if during a three hour period we expect it to be mostly dry but with only a small chance of a very light shower, this may be depicted as a cloud symbol rather than a shower symbol. However, it is possible that showers may occur between the hourly observations and therefore will not be recorded here. Whilst this may make the forecast look incorrect, it should be taken in context with the other observed weather conditions around it along with the forecast chance of rain or snow shown in our forecasts.

Over the past 12 months 92% of our three-hourly temperature forecasts have been accurate to within +/- 2°C on the current day.

These graphs are only available for the current day and are not archived. If you are interested in the accuracy of these forecasts over a longer period of time then you can take a look at: How accurate are our forecasts?