Work package 3: Climate impacts and disaster risk reduction
The objective of this work package is to carry out climate impacts research to help underpin the development of climate services directed to risk reduction of natural disasters.
WP3 aims to improve the translation of information on climate variability and change in extremes into impacts and the subsequent communication of this information. The goal of this project is to build climate science understanding and capability to help deliver climate services for disaster risk reduction.
Many natural disasters in Brazil are water related - especially to do with floods and droughts. From direct impacts on society and energy supply to impacts on fires and crops, there is increasing need to be able to predict and warn of hydrological extremes, and to understand what has caused past events and how their risk may change in future. WP3 aims to address this need by developing and applying modelling techniques to assess risks of extreme events, attribute their causes and to asses their impacts. Modelling of future scenarios and changes in risks under different levels of climate change will also aid to contingency planning and preparedness.
This project aims to improve understanding of natural disasters associated with climate variability and change and develop tools to apply disaster risk reduction. Common areas of interest include hydrological and agricultural impacts, and ecosystem services.
- Improved understanding of the role of land surface processes in droughts and floods will have mutual benefits with carbon cycle modelling.
- Development and improvement of impacts metrics to be applied across timescales from seasons to centuries. Specific interest areas include water availability, flooding, drought and disturbances such as fire
- Understanding present day risks of extremes in rainfall
- Attribution of climate events such as the current drought and water crisis in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo
WP3 will help develop scientific capability to underpin early warning and alerts to the Civil Defence and the population in the short term, and in the longer term benefit policymaking on managing climate extremes and risk of natural disasters, international development and contingency planning for disaster relief and humanitarian aid.