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WP2: Model & Observation Evaluation of Monsoon Process

Work package 2: Model & Observation Evaluation of Monsoon Processes and Hazards

In partnership developing novel diagnostic tools and using observations to assess the most critical processes of monsoon prediction and associated hazards to deliver improved coupled model predictions for weather & climate.

Background:

This work package is focusing on improving global and convective-scale coupled models by reducing model systematic errors through understanding large-scale and regional drivers of monsoon variability/hazards on prediction timescales from hours to a season.

This is using the following framework(s):

    • Global coupled models currently employed for seasonal prediction (e.g. GloSea5 at Met Office - 60km atmosphere & 0.25 degree ocean, GFS/CFS at IITM);
    • Higher resolution (10km atmosphere & 1/12 degree ocean) global coupled atmosphere-ocean-land models being developed at the Met Office & NCMRWF;
    • Atmosphere and ocean only runs at a range of timescales;
    • Use of convective scale (km scale) coupled simulations over an Indian study domain being developed in work package 1 and atmosphere-only convective scale regional models run operationally at NCMRWF. Contrast with global models with parametrized convection;
    • New observations (Satellite, in-situ and research field campaigns) to study monsoon processes, evaluate coupled models and improve forecasts of meteorological variables such as winds, humidity, cloud water and precipitation.

 

The main natural hazards of focus are:

  • Extreme daily precipitation and flash floods - including orographic precipitation.
  • Lightning and Fog risk.
  • Tropical cyclones and coastal inundation
  • Active and break cycles including case studies of
    • Dry-Spells & Heatwaves
    • Anomalous heavy monsoon precipitation leading to large-scale flooding
  • Seasonal Drought and associated Teleconnections.

 

Activities:

  • Model inter-comparisons of global coupled (e.g. UM and CFS) and regional convective scale coupled models in predicting monsoon hazards across weather-seasonal timescales.
  • Explore sensitivity of monsoon systems to key atmosphere, ocean and land processes and evaluate new physical parametrizations for atmosphere (e.g. convection), ocean and land.
  • Develop novel diagnostics & idealised model hierarchies to explore monsoon processes.
  • Use of new satellite products (e.g. Aeolus – new European space borne lidar measuring winds in three dimensions), both within data assimilation systems and for model evaluation.
  • Observational and modelling of key monsoon hazards: Fog and Lightning.

Benefits:

  • Improved initial conditions for numerical models.
  • Improved physical and numerical representation of key monsoon processes in coupled model systems, improving predictions of monsoon hazards and the provision of risk based forecast information (WP3) in weather and climate services.

 

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