International

Work package 3: Risk-Based Forecasting

Work package 3: Risk-Based Forecasting & High-Impact Weather/Seasonal Events  

In partnership develop and enhance methods and processes that improve high-impact weather and impact-based forecasting capabilities.

Background:

Work package 3 will research, develop and improve upon existing methods that translate global and regional-scale model outputs into forecast products that can facilitate improved early warning and communication of high-impact events. Concentrating on 1 or 2 natural hazards (e.g. from WP1 and WP2 research) the work package is developing impact-based forecasting approaches and integrated, multi-hazard warning applications, building on existing tools and infrastructure already in place in India.

Work Package 3 has the following objectives:

  • Evaluate and improve weather models to identify and forecast for high-impact weather events at a range of time-scales
  • Advance research in multi-hazard forecasting techniques and impact modelling approaches for critical hazards in India
  • Explore approaches for developing extended-range outlooks for high-impact events in the sub-seasonal to seasonal time frame
  • Develop frameworks for improved translation and communication of impact-based warnings

Activities:

  • Assess high resolution deterministic and global to regional ensemble forecasting capabilities for high-impact weather events at a range of time scales.
  • Investigate improved post-processing techniques for heavy rainfall forecasting.
  • Review current multi-hazard forecasting approaches for tropical cyclones and develop/enhance tools to detect, summarize and communicate the cascade of hazards and potential impacts.
  • Explore relationships and develop techniques for the development of extended-range forecasting tools, focussing on key hazards and their associated socio-economic impacts.
  • Develop the underpinning observational and modelling science behind impact-based forecasting to support improved communication of high-impact events.

Benefits:

  • Improved representation of high-impact events in a range of models and at a range of time scales.
  • Improved understanding of the driving factors (hazard, vulnerability and exposure) which result in socio-economic impacts.
  • Development of innovative research approaches that translate weather and climate information into risk and impact-based forecasts and warnings.
  • Improved early warning and communication of the risks associated with meteorological and hydro-meteorological hazards.

 

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