Work package 2
Regional scale science and modelling
The objective of this work package (WP) is to develop a regional modelling system in Southeast Asia, by working together to improve convective-scale weather forecast models and to better understand regional to local-scale processes in the region.
This work package aims to improve convective-scale weather forecasts for Southeast Asia, and to better understand and quantify their added value over global model forecasts. Convective-scale weather forecasts offer improved quantitative and qualitative forecasts of extreme weather events and so, compared to current global forecast models, offer improved guidance to decision makers preceding these extreme events.
Improving modelling capability at the regional to local scale in Southeast Asia aids the development of convective-scale models, which provide more accurate information about high impact weather (HIW) than large-scale models. This work package follows a coordinated effort to improve convective-scale modelling in the tropics. As well as improving day-to-day forecasts, this work will underpin the provision of improved extreme weather advice (see WP3), protecting life and prosperity.
- Improving our understanding of the Met Office Unified Model’s behaviour over Southeast Asia.
- Implementing and developing real-time convective-scale forecast models, using new configurations and domains as well as running larger-scale tests.
- Understanding model sensitivity to cloud and microphysical processes.
- Conducting detailed analysis to inform the development of the UM Regional Atmosphere model
- Evaluating and testing convective-scale models, with an initial focus on the impact of the choice of driving model and convective-scale model on numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts in Southeast Asia.
- Using ensemble forecasts to improve model and allow probabilistic over deterministic outputs (capturing uncertainty and building on new configurations).
Grant award: Universities of East Anglia, Leeds and Reading - FORecasting for SouthEast Asia (FORSEA). Systematic analysis of realtime forecasts.
Improvements in modelling and forecasting at convective scales are expected to lead to more accurate and timelier warnings of high impact weather (HIW) events, alongside forecasts of day-to-day weather, which will support decision makers in protecting life and property, encouraging prosperity.
In addition, partners in Southeast Asia will use their skills and experiences in forecasting, modelling and research to evaluate the convective-scale model performance of the weather events of greatest interest to them. This will enable them to recommend aspects for future development, to the benefit of scientists and forecasters in Southeast Asia, and in developing the UK’s modelling capability.