Work package 3
Science to forecasting - improving advice /understanding needs
The objective of this work package (WP) is to pull through science developments into applications and advice that can help to mitigate against high impact weather (HIW) in Southeast Asia.
This work package aims to:
- realise the benefits of advancements in the science of global and high resolution regional models for forecasting high impact weather in Southeast Asia; and
- influence future model development through a combination of enhanced understanding of how models are used and closer working between forecasters and scientists.
HIW includes monsoons, tropical cyclones and cold surges, which all have the potential to incur loss of life, injury and economic costs. The advances made in the science of global (WP1) and high-resolution, regional models (WP2) for forecasting HIW, present many potential opportunities to create services and construct advice. Improved impact-based forecasting is one such example, where both weather forecast and vulnerability are used to predict the overall impacts – this advice encourages preparedness, fast-response and coordination. This work package will build on many elements of WPs 1 and 2, by translating modelling improvements into applications that will support services to protect lives and livelihoods in Southeast Asia.
- Enhancing the process of operations-to-research feedback by developing forecaster-led evaluation of global and regional models (systematic approach).
Grant Award: University of Leeds – FORTIS (Tropical Science and Forecasting Training)
- Developing tools and products to aid forecaster’s interpretation of real-time models.
- Improving interpretation, (near real-time) evaluation and feedback of UM forecasts.
- Support identification of meteorological features leading to high impact weather.
- Providing stronger links between science-based summaries of particular types of events (e.g. monsoons, TCs, MJO, cold surges) and the forecasters.
- Developing improved impact-based forecasting (IBF) approaches.
- Sharing UK experience on HIW warning systems and information users.
- Advising the set-up, implementation and evaluation of a pilot study of IBF in each country.
- Knowledge-exchange on current understanding of model performance for HIW events, with a particular focus on identified vulnerable areas by project partner’s teams.
- Developing improved forecasting of water resources at monthly and seasonal timescales in Malaysia
WP3 underpins services that help to protect lives and livelihoods in Southeast Asia by improving weather forecasting and advice. Developing links between scientists and forecasters will enable reciprocal learning and feedback, to both refine regional forecast interpretations, and direct future model developments. This may lead to more accurate forecasts and advice at longer lead times, accelerating model development and providing socio-economic benefits. Improving the interpretation of HIW in weather forecasting models, such as key country-relevant HIW effects and thresholds, will help to build the most appropriate services for users in Southeast Asia, and generate valuable advice for developing the model science.
This project also has the potential to improve water resource management in Malaysia, through a focused investigation of monthly and seasonal rainfall forecasts in the region.