Sahel, Soudan and Guinea Coast rainfall forecast

Forecast areas

The Sahel

The Sahel is the transitional semi-arid region of North Africa south of the Sahara desert between 12.5°N and 17.5°N. Its inhabitants are sensitive to rainfall amounts in the wet season (typically July to September), with droughts causing significant hardship. Rainfall is very variable from year to year and decade to decade.

The Soudan

The Soudan is the belt immediately to the south of the Sahel between 12.5°N and 10°N. While the wet season is wetter on average than in the Sahel, it also has considerable variability.

The Guinea Coast

The Guinea Coast is a humid tropical region south of 10°N encompassing the countries of Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin and western Nigeria.


  • Long-range forecasts are unlike weather forecasts for the next few days
  • Forecasts show the likelihood of a range of possible outcomes
  • The most likely outcome in the forecast will not always happen
  • Forecasts are for average conditions over a wide region and time period
  • For more details on interpretation, see "How to use our long-range predictions".


Regional rainfall forecasts for the July-August-September season are produced using the dynamical forecast system and issued in early May, with an update in early July.

The updated forecast was issued in July 2022.

Download the updated forecast for the 2022 season