Overview of the output areas
Results from the output areas
Climate variability in rainfall over Africa is driven by processes that operate and interact on a range of space and timescales - from the remote influences of El Niño/La Niña in the tropical Pacific, to influences from local or regional land surface conditions (e.g. the moisture content in African soils). To improve systems for climate early warning (e.g. drought or flood) we must first enhance understanding of these influences and interactions and consolidate this new understanding in our main prediction tools - computer models of the climate system. This is the work of Reliability of climate models for prediction of high impact climate events of the CSRP.
Results from Reliability of climate models for prediction of high impact climate events feed directly into Improvement in understanding and modelling of African climate and Assessment of the benefits of very high resolution regional modelling. In these Outputs, improved modelling for Africa is pulled through into our long-range predictions systems - which have our climate model at their heart.
Such systems include our operational seasonal forecasting system (GloSea4), our PRECIS: a regional climate modelling system system for downscaling and a developing monthly-to-decadal system that will improve our current capability for prediction on multi-annual to Decadal prediction timescales. New forecast products from these systems, designed with African stakeholders, are being trialled under Output 5 together with new climate monitoring products. These trials are a vital step in assisting African climate organisations to improve advice to their users in the agriculture, food security, water resource, energy and health sectors.
In this research, model improvement for African climate is built and demonstrated in the Met Office Hadley Centre's latest climate model (HadGEM3). Through international collaboration and publishing of results, the research contributes to improved climate understanding and modelling across the international climate community and will benefit international climate initiatives such as the IPCC's Assessment Reports.
To optimise the benefit of advances in understanding and predicting African climate it is recognised that capacity for climate science in Africa must be enhanced. This is the primary aim of Outputs 4 and 5.
The main activities are a Research Fellowships through which 11 African climate scientists are working on research topics across Reliability of climate models for prediction of high impact climate events to Assessment of the benefits of very high resolution regional modelling, advancing the CSRP's objectives while building their own professional development and a series of climate science workshops.