The regional projections are downscaled versions of the global projections providing information on local climate effects. They have greater spatial detail than UKCP09 models and benefit from a range of model improvements.
Using the regional projections
The regional projections are driven from the Hadley Centre climate model subset of the global projections, resulting in 12 simulations at 12km. They can support a wide range of impacts studies and provide data with full spatial and temporal coherence and a wider range of variables and time resolutions. These are important for applications requiring assessment of multiple drivers of changing hazards, especially at higher spatial resolution.
You should use the regional projections if you’re interested in:
- Applications where local scales are essential, as the regional projections better represent local effects due to land elevation, coastlines and surface characteristics, as well as providing improved resolution of dynamical features such as mesoscale circulations and frontal systems.
- Improved simulation of extremes with higher temporal variability (e.g. daily, subdaily).
- Extremes that explore future outcomes outside of the 90th percentile of the probabilistic projections (e.g. changes in long-term average precipitation showing large increases in winter in some western coastal regions).
- Analysing climate at multiple geographical locations at the same time, i.e. requiring coherence in space (and across variables).
- Using daily data and being able to calculate a larger set of metrics than that available in the probabilistic projections.
- Analysing drivers and impacts of year-to-year variability. The regional projections support investigation of resulting high-impact events.
Further supporting information can be found in Guidance and Science Reports and include:
- Factsheets that summarise the key findings for the available variables across all the projections.
- A summary of the results, methods, evaluation and limitations of the probabilistic projections in Section 2 of the UKCP18 Science Overview report.
- Detailed description of the methodology and scientific results in Section 3 of the UKCP18 Land Projections report.
- UKCP18 Marine and Derived Projections reports.