Joanne develops seasonal predictions of tropical storm activity in the North Atlantic.
Joanne's work focuses on the use of dynamical models for long-range (seasonal) predictions of tropical storm activity, for the public and business communities. In particular, Joanne works on the development of seasonal tropical prediction products to provide a forecast of North Atlantic tropical storm activity ahead of the forthcoming season.
The forecasts are produced using ensemble predictions from the latest Met Office seasonal prediction system, Met Office seasonal prediction system: GloSea4, and a tropical storm tracking method currently being developed at the Met Office. The ensemble predictions are calibrated using observations from the NOAA Hurricane Database (HURDAT).
A forecast for the number of tropical storms and ACE index is released to the public each June. In addition, a more detailed probabilistic prediction is prepared and made available to commercial customers. At the end of each season, a report discussing the observed tropical storm activity and verification of the seasonal forecast is provided on the Met Office website.
The skill of dynamical forecasting methods to predict the number of tropical storms in the North Atlantic is shown to be comparable to that of traditional statistical forecasting methods, for example Vitart et al. (2007).
Joanne has been a member of Monthly to Decadal Applications in the Met Office Hadley Centre since 2008 after graduating with a BSc in Meteorology from the University of Reading.