The scientific consultancy team at the Met Office

Dr Justin Krijnen

Areas of expertise

  • Marine: sea level rise
  • Energy: seasonal forecasting
  • Water: demand modelling, putting events into historical context

Current activities

Justin develops operational services and undertakes consultancy projects for the energy and water sectors. This includes developing a degree day service that relates the severity of cold to the likely volume of calls to be expected for a water company.

Further work includes developing a freeze-thaw index for water companies of the likely impacts of cold weather, including wind chill on overhead pipes, allowing water companies to be aware of and better plan their operations 10 to 15 days ahead.

For the energy sector, he has developed a sudden stratospheric warming index from the Met Office model for use on seasonal timescales that helps energy traders’ better plan for the impacts of cold weather.

Justin has also developed a quarterly report template, which places weather events such as the “Beast from the East”, and the summer 2018 heatwave into historical context, both in terms of the weather itself and on water demand.

Career background

Justin joined the Applied Science team at the Met Office in October 2012. He holds a PhD in marine biogeochemistry gained from the University of East Anglia in 2013 where he investigated the mechanisms of the partial pressure (pCO2) variability of the North Atlantic. This marine background enabled Justin to significantly contribute to the production of 21st century sea level rise projections for the Environment Agency.

In April 2016, Justin joined the scientific consultancy team where he was involved with the Copernicus CLIM4ENERGY project where sea level rise projections for the offshore oil and gas industry were provided. More recently, he also contributed to the sea level rise projections within UKCP18.

Justin became increasingly involved with the water industry from 2017. This included undertaking data analysis of weather variables that impact water demand and placing extreme events into context to producing operational products for water companies.