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convective summer storms important for flash flooding. New understanding from this work will be applied in the context of developing and improving our climate models, as well as providing guidance to the government on future changes in local weather extremes over the coming decades. Career background Lizzie
, where it will be breezy and cooler. A few showers are expected ahead of this over Wales. Friday night will see a rain band making slow eastward progress into Scotland, Wales, and western England, gradually fragmenting. Fog patches will form over Northern Ireland after the rain clears. Elsewhere
will remain dry, there is a chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms moving northwards across western parts, and a few heavier showers may develop over northern Scotland during the afternoon. The hot weather continues over the next few days, with Saturday likely seeing the highest temperatures
persistent across western and northwestern Scotland, particularly over windward hills and mountains. Coastal gales are likely along the west coast of Scotland, where a National Severe Weather Warning is in force. As the day progresses, this cloud and rain will gradually extend into parts of northwest Wales
the latest forecast 👇 pic.twitter.com/ofKpEFgtuA — Met Office (@metoffice) July 11, 2025 Met Office Chief Meteorologist, Steve Willington, said: “The current heatwave is more widespread than previous heatwaves this summer. Temperatures are likely to locally approach 30°C tomorrow (Saturday) over Northern
Butterflies at the Met Office Volunteers from the Met Office began monitoring butterfly diversity in 2013 then with fortnightly surveys and weekly surveys from 2015. 30 transects have been conducted each year from 2015 to 2023, and we can see how butterfly numbers have changed over time. 2020
Warnings this week The Met Office have issued weather warnings this week, with gusty winds and heavy rain likely for some on Thursday. Ahead of these warnings, rain will push northwards on Wednesday night, with a risk of snow over higher ground of western England and Wales, followed by scattered
) on initiation. Can we perturb the soil moisture in a realistic way in some case(s) to investigate this? Analysis of climate runs inc. UKCP 2.2km ensemble, 2.2km over Europe and 4.5km over Africa. Event composites for different weather regimes. Analyse profiles of events and rainfall distributions
to climatological baselines FIGURE 1: Forecast probabilities (%) of the (a) below normal and (b) above normal tercile categories and the (c) well-below-normal and (d) well-above-normal quintile categories of precipitation, February-May 2021. The tercile and quintile categories are defined over the 1981- 2010
-level, there are clearly models that exhibit substantially more skill over others, and careful consideration should therefore be made when selecting models for the seasonal forecast. Additional analysis on the skill of an MME and ways to combine these models at both the regional and national levels
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