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Risk modelling collaborations


Working with leading organisations to provide a global, independent and transparent view of catastrophic events

Historical catalogue of extreme European windstorms at 25-km resolution

In partnership with the University of Reading and the University of Exeter we applied our significant experience in windstorm modelling to create a historical extreme wind storms (XWS) database.

The University of Reading provided information on windstorm intensity and tracks. The Met Office collaborated with the University of Exeter to provide footprint analysis at 25-km resolution, applying post-processing techniques for a better representation of what happened than can be provided by observations alone.

The project benefited from collaboration with insurance industry participants, and 25-km resolution footprints of the 50 most intense storms are now available free of charge.

Further information on the project see The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979 to 2012.

Lloyds - Long term variability for Hurricanes

The Met Office and Lloyd's, the world's specialist insurance market, teamed up to promote the latest scientific research on North Atlantic hurricanes.

Landfalling hurricanes in the US are the costliest of all natural hazards, with the total bill for Hurricanes Katrina, Wilma and Rita in 2005 reaching an estimated $90bn.

Hurricanes and Long-term Climate Variabilty, a report from Lloyd's and the Met Office, examines the latest research papers from a number of leading organisations.

The study explores how atmospheric climate and oceanic conditions influence the formation of powerful storms and what drives them to make landfall.

In recent years, we have made great strides in understanding the global climate and providing medium and long-range forecasts for the most destructive storms, like North Atlantic hurricanes.

This study presents the very latest knowledge on what drives changes in hurricane landfalling risks by examining the underlying physical causes. This approach takes steps towards the validation of some commonly used statistical relationships and will potentially find others.

Light Hill Risk Network - Extreme weather planning

Commissioned by the Light Hill Risk Network, we wrote a report to define and describe the cycle of El Niño and La Niña episodes and their worldwide impacts most relevant to the finance industry, highlighting in particular severe rainfall and tropical storm aspects.

This assists the financial industry to make more informed decisions through an understanding of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This oscillation shifts the risks of damaging hazards in recognisable ways and is predictable about six months in advance.

Read the Global Impact of El Niño and La Niña Implications for Financial Services report.

OASIS Loss Modelling Framework

The Met Office is an active member of the OASIS Loss Modelling Framework (LMF) community which includes representatives from insurance and reinsurance companies, along with other parties interested in catastrophe modelling. The LMF is focused on creating open access catastrophe models for the global community.

Association of British Insurers - Assessing the financial risks of climate change

To assess the financial impacts of climate change, we worked with The Association of British Insurers (ABI) and catastrophe modelling experts AIR Worldwide, to conduct a study. The focus was on the dominant natural hazards in the UK, wind and inland flooding damage, and typhoon damage in China.

We created a series of climate scenarios based on the current state-of-the-art climate model output, as well as a diverse range of published scientific research and data. The scenarios were then used by AIR Worldwide to adjust their catastrophe models - providing a unique insight into relationships between climate change and potential financial risk impacts.

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