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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Friday 31 Jan - Sunday 9 Feb

Often windy with outbreaks of rain and showers for all areas at the start of this period, with temperatures on the mild side of the seasonal average. As we head through the first full week of February it currently looks most likely that we will see a gradual trend towards more settled conditions, particularly in the south, and there is a chance that these will extend across the whole country at times. Overnight fog and frosts are likely to accompany these more settled conditions, with light winds and temperatures probably nearer to the average for the time of year. The far north, and particularly north-west, will probably remain more changeable, or unsettled, with further spells of wind and rain.

Sunday 9 Feb - Sunday 23 Feb

The first part of the period is likely to trend to more anticyclonic conditions, with the associated drier and more settled weather intially in the southeast, spreading northwestwards and beginning to dominate. The north will continue to be at risk from outbreaks of rain and stronger winds at times. Overnight frosts and fog will be likely, which could be persistent at times. Temperatures around normal, and sometimes a little above. There could be large variations between night time and day time temperatures in the more settled spells, especially on the sunnier days.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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