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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Tuesday 2 Apr - Thursday 11 Apr

Next week begins with some uncertainty, but it looks likely that we will see a return towards more widely unsettled conditions as another area of low pressure pushes across the UK with changeable weather likely largely dominating throughout this period. Most areas look likely to see further showers and some longer spells of rain at times, although interspersed with some drier spells in between. It looks likely that a north - south split will be set up across the UK. The wettest weather will tend to favour the south whilst northern parts remain a bit drier on average. In association with this split in general temperatures will be close to average, but it will be occasionally cooler in the north, and milder in south.

Friday 12 Apr - Friday 26 Apr

Through mid to late April, pressure is likely to be higher than average to the north of the UK, with low pressure more likely to the west or southwest. This pattern tends to push the focus of unsettled weather further south than usual, with largest rainfall totals more likely to be in the south of the UK. Conversely northern, especially northwestern, areas will tend to be drier compared to normal. A trend towards more settled conditions in the latter part of this period is growing more likely, of course this not a guarantee at this range. Temperatures will probably be near average or slightly above overall, with any cooler interludes most likely in the north early in the period.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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