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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Friday 13 Dec - Sunday 22 Dec

Staying unsettled throughout Friday with blustery showers and spells of rain. Some drier or brighter interludes may develop in the afternoon before further rain arrives later. Staying windy, particularly in the south, with a risk of coastal gales. Temperatures near average in the south, but turning colder further north. The changeable theme looks to continue over the next few weeks with showers or spells of rain throughout. Any drier interludes are likely to be short-lived in any one place. Temperatures look likely to fall below average with the risk of wintry showers in the north alongside a low risk of snow along northern edges of rain bands. Some possible frost and freezing fog at times, mainly across northern regions. Strong winds and a risk of coastal gales throughout the period.

Sunday 22 Dec - Sunday 5 Jan

A more changeable spell is expected towards the end of December, with the greatest potential for heavy rain in the south and east at first, with any snow becoming confined to northern hills. A more typical northwest/southeast split looks likely to develop into the New Year bringing rain to the northwest interspersed with showers, and drier periods further south. This could be accompanied by a general upturn in temperatures, as well as the risk of strong winds at times.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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