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Tropical cyclone forecast error charts - Met Office versus ECMWF

Error statistics

For those not familiar with the types of error statistics used in tropical cyclone forecast assessment and their sign conventions a diagrammatic explanation is available.

Forecast data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are routinely retrieved and run through the Met Office tropical cyclone track verification system. The graphs below show annual global comparisons of Met Office and ECMWF forecast track errors and intensity biases for homogeneous samples.

 1. Track Errors



 2. Central Pressure Bias



 3. 10m Wind Bias


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