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Observed and forecast tracks: northern hemisphere 2015

All tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere season in 2015 are listed below including details of their start and end dates, lowest central pressure and maximum sustained wind (MSW). Qualitative comments are included on the performance of the Met Office global model in predicting the track of each tropical cyclone.

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

North-west Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Mekkhala (01W) 13-18 January 965 mb, 70/70 knots Track errors were slightly above the average for last season due to a right-of-track bias
Higos (02W) 07-11 February 935 mb, 115/95 knots There was a slight slow and right-of-track bias in forecasts resulting in track errors above last year's average at some lead times. However, skill scores were high at some lead times.
Bavi (03W) 11-18 March 990 mb, 50/45 knots Track forecast errors were close to or above last season's average due to a northwards bias. However, skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Maysak (04W) 27 March-05 April 905 mb, 140/115 knots Track forecasts were mostly very good with errors below last season's average and positive skill scores.
Haishen (05W) 03-06 April 998 mb, 45/35 knots Haishen was a relatively short-lived storm with only a few forecasts verified.
Noul (06W) 03-12 May 915 mb, 140/105 knots Track forecast errors were near to or lower than last season's average. Recurvature occurred sooner than in most forecasts.
Dolphin (07W) 06-20 May 925 mb, 140/100 knots Track forecast errors were near to or higher than last season's average. Recurvature occurred sooner than in some early forecasts.
Kujira (08W) 20-24 June 985 mb, 45/40 knots Track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average.
Chan-hom (09W) 30 June - 12 July 935 mb, 120/90 knots Track forecast errors were mostly below last season's average. Skill scores against CLIPER were high. There was an overdeepening bias overall.
Linfa (10W) 02-09 July 975 mb, 65/55 knots Track forecast errors were mixed, although large at long lead times due to an eastwards bias.
Nangka (11W) 03-18 July 925 mb, 135/100 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average at lead times up to 120 hours, but larger at longer lead times. This was due to recurvature being predicted too soon in early forecasts and a left-of-track bias in later forecasts. There was an overdeepening bias later in Nangka's life as it approached landfall.
12W 23-25 July 993 mb, 40/30 knots 12W was only briefly a tropical storm according to JTWC and no forecasts were verified.
Soudelor (13W) 30 July - 09 August 900 mb, 155/115 knots Track forecast errors were well below last season's average for this typhoon.
14W 02-04 August 1000 mb, 30/- knots No forecasts were verified for this tropical depression.
Molave (15W) 07-13 August 990 mb, 50/45 knots Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high for this storm. The recurvature was well predicted.
Goni (16W) 14-18 August 935 mb, 115/95 knots The acceleration north-eastwards was not predicted at longer lead times, but at all shorter lead times track forecast errors were low.
Atsani (17W) 14-25 August 925 mb, 140/100 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores high for this typhoon.
Etau (18W) 06-09 September 985 mb, 60/50 knots Etau was a relatively short-lived storm. Track forecasts had a slow bias.
Vamco (19W) 13-14 September 996 mb, 35/35 knots Vamco was very short-lived and only one 12-hour forecast was verified.
Krovanh (20W) 14-20 September 945 mb, 105/85 knots Track forecast errors were mixed, but generally the recurvature of the storm was well predicted.
Dujuan (21W) 21-29 September 925 mb, 125/100 knots Track forecast errors were very low and skill scores very high for this typhoon. Landfall over Taiwan was mostly very well predicted.
Mujigae (22W) 01-04 October 965 mb, 115/70 knots Track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average. Skill scores against CLIPER were high. There was a slight right-of-track bias in landfall predictions.
Choi-wan (23W) 02-08 October 955 mb, 70/60 knots Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high. The northwards turn and acceleration were well predicted.
Koppu (24W) 13-21 October 920 mb, 130/100 knots Short lead time track forecast errors were above last season's average, but longer lead time errors were low.
Champi (25W) 13-25 October 940 mb, 130/90 knots Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high for all but the longest lead times.
26W 22 October 1004 mb, 25/- knots 26W did not attain tropical storm status and no forecasts are verified.
In-fa (27W) 17-26 November 935 mb, 120/95 knots Early forecasts had a right-of-track bias which resulted in errors well above last season's average overall.
Melor (28W) 11-17 December 935 mb, 125/95 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average for this storm.
29W 16-17 December 1004 mb, 25/30 knots No forecasts were verified for this tropical depression.

North-west Pacific observed tracks in 2015
North-West Pacific tropical cyclone names

North-east Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Andres (01E) 28 May-04 June 938 mb, 125 knots Track errors were mostly above last season's average due to a fast bias including a failure to slow the foreward motion prior to dissipation. However, skill scores against CLIPER were mostly positive.
Blanca (02E) 31 May-09 June 943 mb, 120 knots Track forecast errors for this hurricane were very low and skill scores very high.
Carlos (03E) 10-17 June 978 mb, 80 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average due to a left-of-track bias.
Ela (04E) *1 08-10 July 1003 mb, 35 knots Ela only briefly reached tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
Dolores (05E) 11-19 July 944 mb, 115 knots Track forecast errors were well below last season's avlues for all but the longest lead times.
Enrique (06E) 12-18 July 1000 mb, 45 knots Track forecast errors were very low and skill scores very high for this storm.
Felicia (07E) 23-25 July 1004 mb, 35 knots Felicia only briefly reached tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
08E 27-30 July 1007 mb, 30 knots No forecasts were verified for this depression.
Guillermo (09E) 30 July - 07 August 970 mb, 90 knots Track forecast errors were large for this hurricane due to an early failure to predict the extent of the north-westwards turn, taking the hurricane north of Hawaii.
Hilda (10E) 06-14 August 946 mb, 120 knots Track forecast errors were close to last season's average.
11E 16-18 August 1003 mb, 30 knots No forecasts were verified for this depression.
Ignacio (12E) 25 August-05 September 942 mb, 125 knots Apart from a couple of early forecasts which predicted landfall over Hawaii, track forecasts were very good with errors below average and high skill scores.
Jimena (13E) 26 August-10 September 936 mb, 130 knots Jimena was well predicted by the model. Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high.
Kevin (14E) 31 August-05 September 999 mb, 50 knots Kevin was relatively short-lived and track forecast errors were above average due to a slow bias.
Linda (15E) 06-10 September 951 mb, 110 knots Track forecast errors were lower than last season's average. There was a slight fast bias at some lead times.
16E 20-21 September 1002 mb, 30 knots 16E did not reach tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
Marty (17E) 26 September-01 October 987 mb, 70 knots Track forecast errors were mostly below last season's average.
Nora (18E) 09-15 October 993 mb, 60 knots Track forecast errors were larger than average for this storm due to a strong right-of-track bias.
Olaf (19E) 15-27 October 938 mb, 130 knots Track forecast errors were near to last season's average at short lead times, but well below average at longer lead times. The recurvature was well predicted.
Patricia (20E) 20-24 October 872 mb, 185 knots *2 Although the global model was not able to predict the extreme intensity of Patricia, track forecasts were excellent. The 3-day forecast error for landfall was just 17 km.
Rick (21E) 18-22 November 1001 mb, 40 knots Track forecast errors were mixed with a slow bias at longer lead times.
Sandra (22E) 23-28 November 935 mb, 125 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average due to a slow and left-of-track bias.
Central North Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central Pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Halola (01C) *3 10-26 July 955 mb, 90/80 knots Halola has track forecast errors near to last season's values in forecasts up to 120 hours. At longer lead times errors were larger due to a tendency to recurve the typhoon too soon.
Iune (02C) 10-13 July 1003 mb, 35 knots Iune was a short-lived tropical storm.
Kilo (03C) *3 20 August-11 September 940 mb, 120 knots Kilo was long-lived, being active for three weeks. It passed from the Central North Pacific into the North-West Pacific region. Track forecast errors were lower than last season's average at all lead times and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Loke (04C) 21-26 August 986 mb, 65 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average due to a slow bias.
Malia (05C) 19-22 September 1001 mb, 35 knots Malia only briefly reached tropical storm status and track errors were above last season's average.
Niala (06C) 25-29 September 992 mb, 55 knots Track forecast errors were close to last season's average for this storm.
Oho (07C) 03-08 October 957 mb, 95 knots Track forecast errors were mostly above last season's average due to a slow bias. However, the direction of motion was well predicted.
08C 03-04 October 1001 mb, 30 knots No forecasts were verified for this tropical depression.
09C 31 December-01 January 1001 mb, 30 knots No forecasts were verified for this tropical depression.

*1 Ela originated in the North-East Pacific, but spent most of its life in the Central North Pacific.

*2 Updated with central pressure and wind speed values from post-event report.

*3 Halola and Kilo originated in the Central North Pacific, but spent most of their lives in the North-West Pacific.

North-east and Central North Pacific observed tracks in 2015

North-east Pacific tropical cyclone names

Central North Pacific tropical cyclone names


North Atlantic
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Ana (01L) 08-10 May 998 mb, 50 knots Ana was relatively short-lived, but track forecast errors were low.
Bill (02L) 16-17 June 997 mb, 50 knots Bill only formed shortly before landfall, but its track forecast errors were low.
Claudette (03L) 13-15 July 1004 mb, 45 knots Claudette was short-lived and track forecast errors were near last season's average.
Danny (04L) 18-24 August 974 mb, 100 knots Track forecast errors were near to or slightly above last season's average.
Erika (05L) 25-29 August 1001 mb, 45 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average due to a right-of-track bias.
Fred (06L) 30 August-06 September 989 mb, 70 knots Short lead time forecasts had track forecast errors close to average, but errors at longer lead times were above average due to a slow and right-of-track bias.
Grace (07L) 05-09 September 1002 mb, 45 knots Track forecast errors were near to or slightly above last season's average for this storm.
Henri (08L) 09-11 September 1008 mb, 35 knots Henri was short-lived and very few forecasts were verified.
09L 16-20 September 1006 mb, 30 knots 09L did not achieve tropical storm status.
Ida (10L) 18-27 September 1003 mb, 45 knots Track forecast errors were near to or above last season's average. The slow down was well predicted, but the direction of motion after this time was not.
Joaquin (11L) 28 September-08 October 931 mb, 135 knots The model had a left-of-track bias resulting in longer lead time errors being very large. Whilst this bias was larger than the ECMWF model it was not as large as some other models.
Kate (12L) 09-12 November 983 mb, 65 knots Track forecast errors were near average overall and the model predicted recurvature and extratropical transition well.

North Atlantic observed tracks in 2015

North Atlantic tropical cyclone names

North Indian
(forecast track charts for Global and South Asia models shown)
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Ashobaa (01A) 07-12 June 982 mb, 55/45 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average primarily due to a tendency to recurve the storm in early forecasts. Later forecasts predicted the slow movement towards Oman well.
Komen (02B) 29-31 July 986 mb, 40/40 knots Only a few forecasts were verified for this storm, but track errors were near to last season's average.
03A 09-11 October 996 mb, 35/30 knots This was short-lived as a tropical storm.
Chapala (04A) 28 October-04 November 922 mb, 135/115 knots Track forecast errors were well below last season's average for this cyclone which made landfall over Yemen.
Megh (05A) 05-10 November 941 mb, 110/95 knots Track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average for this region.

North Indian observed tracks in 2015

North Indian tropical cyclone names


Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)

10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (JMA Japan, IMD New Delhi)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.

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