Close window
Close window
This section of the new site isn't ready yet. We've brought you back to the current site.

Observed and forecast tracks: northern hemisphere 2016

All tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere season in 2016 are listed below including details of their start and end dates, lowest central pressure and maximum sustained wind (MSW). Qualitative comments are included on the performance of the Met Office global model in predicting the track of each tropical cyclone.

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

North-west Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
01W 26-27 May 1004 mb, 30/- knots 01W did not reach tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
Nepartak (02W) 03-09 July 897 mb, 150/115 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores were high.
03W 17 July 1004 mb, 25/- knots 03W did not reach tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
Lupit (04W) 23-24 July 1000 mb, 40/40 knots Lupit was short-lived and only a few forecasts were verified.
Mirinae (05W) 25-28 July 985 mb, 45/50 knots Track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average.
Nida (06W) 29 July-02 August 970 mb, 80/65 knots Track forecast errors were close to last season's average. There was a slight lefy of track bias.
Omais (07W) 04-09 August 975 mb, 60/60 knots Track forecasts for Omais were very good with errors below last season's average.
Conson (08W) 08-14 August 985 mb, 50/50 knots There was a left of track bias for this storm resulting in track forecast errors above last season's average.
Chanthu (09W) 13-17 August 980 mb, 45/55 knots Track forecast errors were above average for this storm.
Mindulle (10W) 17-23 August 975 mb, 55/65 knots Track forecast errors were high at longer lead times due to a slow bias.
Dianmu (11W) 18-19 August 985 mb, 40/40 knots Dianmu only briefly reached tropical storm status.
Lionrock (12W) 18-30 August 940 mb, 115/90 knots Track forecast errors were low at short lead times, but high at longer lead times. The large errors were as a result of several runs failing to predict the sharp turn back north-eastwards of the typhoon.
Kompasu (13W) 19-21 August 994 mb, 40/35 knots Track forecast errors were low for this storm.
14W 23-24 August 1000 mb, 30/- knots No forecasts were verified for 14W.
Namtheun (15W) 31 August-05 September 955 mb, 100/75 knots Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high for this storm.
Malou 06-07 September 1000 mb, 20/35 knots Malou was only briefly designated a tropical storm by JMA and no forecasts were verified.
Meranti (16W) 08-15 September 890 mb, 165/120 knots There was a left-of-track bias to some forecasts for this typhoon which resulted in track forecast errors mostly above last season's average.
17W 11 September 1004 mb, 30/- knots 17W did not attain tropical storm status. No forecasts were verified.
Malakas (18W) 11-20 September 930 mb, 115/95 knots Track forecasts for the period prior to recurvature were generally good. Beyond that there was a slow and left-of-track bias resulting in errors overall a little above last season's average.
Rai (19W) 12-13 September 996 mb, 30/35 knots Rai was only briefly a tropical storm according to JMA and no forecasts were verified.
Megi (20W) 23-28 September 940 mb, 115/85 knots Although there was a slight left-of-track bias, forecast errors were below last season's average.
Chaba (21W) 27 September-05 October 905 mb, 145/115 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average due to a tendency to recurve Chaba too soon.
Aere (22W) 05-13 October 975 mb, 55/60 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average for this storm.
Songda (23W) 08-13 October 925 mb, 130/100 knots Track forecast errors were mostly low for this storm. Recurvature was well forecast.
Sarika (24W) 12-19 October 935 mb, 115/95 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores high for this typhoon.
Haima (25W) 15-21 October 900 mb, 145/115 knots Whilst there were small errors in the timing and location of landfall some days out, track forecast errors for Haima were mostly low and skill scores very high.
Meari (26W) 02-07 November 955 mb, 90/80 knots Track forecast errors were mostly above last season's average due to a fast bias.
Ma-on (27W) 09-12 November 998 mb, 35/40 knots Ma-on was short-lived as a tropical storm.
28W 11-12 November 1000 mb, 30/30 knots This depression did not reach tropical storm status.
Tokage (29W) 24-28 November 994 mb, 50/45 knots Track forecast errors were a little above last season's average.
Nock-ten (30W) 21-28 December 915 mb, 135/100 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average at short lead times, but below t longer lead times. the location of landfall was well predicted.

North-west observed tracks in 2016

North-west Pacific tropical cyclone names

North-east Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
01E 06-08 June 1006 mb, 30 knots 01E did not reach tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
Agatha (02E) 02-05 July 1003 mb, 40 knots Agatha was a short-lived storm. Track forecast errors were below average.
Blas (03E) 03-10 July 951 mb, 115 knots Track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average.
Celia (04E) 06-16 July 972 mb, 85 knots Celia's track was well predicted by the model. Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high.
Darby (05E) 11-26 July 963 mb, 100 knots Darby was a long-lived storm. Track forecast errors were mostly well below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Estelle (06E) 15-22 July 990 mb, 60 knots Track forecast errors were very low for Estelle.
Frank (07E) 21-28 July 979 mb, 75 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average at short lead times, but below at longer lead times.
Georgette (08E) 21-27 July 952 mb, 115 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average at short lead times, but below at longer lead times.
Howard (09E) 31 July-03 August 999 mb, 50 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average.
Ivette (10E) 02-08 August 1000 mb, 50 knots Track forecast errors were very low for this storm.
Javier (11E) 07-09 August 998 mb, 55 knots Javier only briefly reached tropical storm status.
Kay (12E) 18-23 August 1000 mb, 45 knots Track forecast errors were low for this storm.
Lester (13E) 24 August-07 September 947 mb, 120 knots Track forecast errors were mostly below last season's average for this hurricane. There was a slight slow and left-of-track bias in forecasts overall.
Madeline (14E) 26 August-03 September 950 mb, 115 knots Apart from a poor early forecast, track errors were low for this hurricane.
Newton (15E) 04-07 September 979 mb, 80 knots Track forecast errors were slightly above last season's average.
Orlene (16E) 11-17 September 967 mb, 95 knots Track forecast errors were very low and skill scores against CLIPER high for this hurricane.
Paine (17E) 18-21 September 979 mb, 80 knots Only a few forecasts were verified for this hurricane and track forecast errors were mixed.
Roslyn (18E) 25-29 September 1000 mb, 45 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average for this storm.

Ulika (19E) *

26 September-01 October 992 mb, 65 knots Track errors were slightly above last season's average.
Seymour (20E) 23-28 October 943 mb, 130 knots Track forecast errors were all below last season's average except for the few forecasts beyond T+72.
Tina (21E) 14-15 November 1005 mb, 35 knots Tina was only briefly a tropical storm.
Central North Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central Pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Pali (01C) 07-15 January 977 mb, 85 knots Track forecast errors were mostly above last season's average. However, skill scores against CLIPER were extremely high.

North-east and Central North Pacific observed tracks in 2016

North-east Pacific tropical cyclone names

Central North Pacific tropical cyclone names

* Ulika formed in the North-east Pacific, but was named in the Central North Pacific


North Atlantic
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Alex (01L) 13-15 January 981 mb, 75 knots Alex was a tropical system for a relatively brief time. Track errors were close to last season's average.
Bonnie (02L) 27-30 May 1007 mb, 35 knots Bonnie only briefly attained tropical storm status.
Colin (03L) 05-07 June 1006 mb, 45 knots Track forecast errors were a little above last season's average. There was a slow bias in forecasts.
Danielle (04L) 19-21 June 1007 mb, 40 knots Danielle was only briefly a tropical storm and just one forecast was verified.
Earl (05L) 02-06 August 979 mb, 70 knots Track forecast errors were near to last season's average for this hurricane.
Fiona (06L) 17-23 August 1006 mb, 40 knots Fiona was well forecast and track forecast errors were low.
Gaston (07L) 22 August-03 September 956 mb, 105 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average for this hurricane. The sharp turn was well predicted in most runs of the model.
08L 28 August-01 September 1009 mb, 30 knots No forecasts were verified for this tropical depression.
Hermine (09L) 28 August-03 September 982 mb, 70 knots Track forecast errors for Hermine were mostly very low. Landfall was well predicted.
Ian (10L) 12-16 September 996 mb, 50 knots There was a slow bias in forecasts for this storm.
Julia (11L) 14-19 September 1007 mb, 35 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average for this storm.
Karl (12L) 14-25 September 986 mb, 60 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores high for this storm. The recurvature and acceleration north-east was generally well predicted.
Lisa (13L) 19-25 September 999 mb, 45 knots Track forecast errors were a little above last season's average for this storm.
Matthew (14L) 28 September-09 October 934 mb, 140 knots Track forecast errors for Hurricane Matthew were very low and skill scores very high. Mean errors at 24, 72, 120 and 168 hours were 60, 106, 226 and 291 km. Landfall over Haiti and the track close to the USA were mostly very well predicted. Track forecast errors were lower than ECMWF overall and forecasts were amongst the best (if not actually the best) numerical model guidance available for this hurricane.
Nicole (15L) 04-18 October 950 mb, 115 knots Whilst a few early forecasts failed to predict the north-eastwards movement of Nicole, overall track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Otto (16L) 21-26 November 975 mb, 95 knots Despite having a small polewards bias, track forecast errors were below last season's average.

North Atlantic observed tracks in 2016

North Atlantic tropical cyclone names

North Indian
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Roanu (01B) 27-30 May 982 mb, 55/45 knots Track forecast errors were near to average for this storm.
02A 27-28 June 996 mb, 35/30 knots 02A was designated a storm by JTWC, but not by IMD. Few forecasts were verified.
Kyant (03B) 23-26 October 984 mb, 50/40 knots Kyant was only briefly a storm and only a few forecasts were verified. However, the formation and track across the Bay of Bengal were well predicted.
Nada (04B) 29 November-01 December 993 mb, 45/40 knots Track forecast errors were near to last seasons average.
Vardah (05B) 07-13 December 970 mb, 75/70 knots There was a right-of-track bias in forecasts. Landfall location was predicted well from about two days in advance.

North Indian observed tracks in 2016

North Indian tropical cyclone names


Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)

10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (JMA Japan, IMD New Delhi)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.

Last updated:

Follow us on

Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Instagram, Snapchat, or LinkedIn Facebook Follow @metoffice on Twitter YouTube Instagram Snapchat LinkedIn