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Observed and forecast tracks: northern hemisphere 2017

All tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere season in 2017 are listed below including details of their start and end dates, lowest central pressure and maximum sustained wind (MSW). Qualitative comments are included on the performance of the Met Office global model in predicting the track of each tropical cyclone.

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

North-west Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
01W 07-16 January 1000 mb, 30/- knots 01W did not reach tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
02W 14-15 April 1005 mb, 30/30 knots No forecast verified for this tropical depression.
Muifa (03W) 24-27 April 1002 mb, 40/35 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average for this short-lived storm.
Merbok (04W) 11-12 June 990 mb, 45/50 knots Merbok was short-lived and track forecast errors were near to last season's average.
Nanmadol (05W) 02-04 July 985 mb, 60/55 knots Track forecast errors were near last season's average.
Talas (06W) 15-17 July 990 mb, 50/50 knots Talas was short-lived and track errors were below last season's average.
Sonca (08W) 21-25 July 994 mb, 45/35 knots Track forecast errors were mixed for this storm.
Kulap (09W) 21-26 July 997 mb, 50/40 knots Track forecast errors were mostly below last season's average for this storm.
Roke (10W) 21-23 July 1002 mb, 35/35 knots Roke was briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.
Nesat (11W) 26-30 July 960 mb, 80/80 knots Track forecast errors were a little above last season's average at short lead times. Errors were below average at longer lead times.
Haitang (12W) 28-31 July 960 mb, 80/80 knots Track forecast errors were near to last season's average.
Nalgae (13W) 01-05 August 990 mb, 40/45 knots Track errors were a little above last season's average.
Banyan (14W) 11-17 August 970 mb, 90/75 knots Track forecast errors were low for this typhoon.
Hato (15W) 20-24 August 960 mb, 90/60 knots Track forecast errors were near or below average for this typhoon.
Pakhar (16W) 24-27 August 985 mb, 55/55 knots Landfall of Pakhar was predicted a couple of days in advance.
Sanvu (17W) 28 August-03 September 955 mb, 90/80 knots Track forecast errors were near average at short lead times, but above average at longer lead times.
Mawar (18W) 31 August-03 September 990 mb, 45/50 knots Track forecast errors were low.
Guchol (19W) 04-06 September 1000 mb, 30/35 knots Guchol only briefly became a tropical storm according to JMA.
Talim (20W) 08-18 September 935 mb, 120/95 knots Track forecast errors were mostly above last season's average due to a left-of-track bias in some early forecasts.
Doksuri (21W) 11-15 September 955 mb, 100/80 knots Track forecast errors were near to or below average for this storm.
22W 23-25 September 1001 mb, 30/30 knots No forecasts verified as this depression did not achieve tropical storm status.
23W 08-10 October 1000 mb, 30/30 knots No forecasts were verified for this depression.
Khanun (24W) 12-16 October 960 mb, 90/80 knots Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high for this typhoon. Landfall predictions were good.
Lan (25W) 15-23 October 925 mb, 135/95 knots The track of Typhoon Lan was well predicted. Positional errors were low and skill scores high. Landfall over Japan was predicted over six days in advance.
26W 18-19 October 1002 mb, 30/- knots No forecasts were verified for this depression.
Saola (27W) 19-29 October 975 mb, 75/60 knots Early forecasts had a irght-of-track bias resulting in track forecast errors above last season's average. However, later forecast predicted the recurvature and extratropical transition well.
Damrey (28W) 01-04 November 970 mb, 90/70 knots Track forecast errors were low for this storm.
29W 06-08 November 1004 mb, 30/- knots No forecasts verified for this depression.
Haikui (30W) 09-12 November 998 mb, 45/40 knots Only one forecast was verified for this short-lived storm.
Kirogi (31W) 17-19 November 1000 mb, 40/35 knots Track forecast errors were near average.
Kai-tak (32W) 13-21 December 996 mb, 50/40 knots Track forecast errors were a little above last season's average.
Tembin (33W) 20-26 December 975 mb, 80/70 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average for this storm.

North-west observed tracks in 2017

North-west Pacific tropical cyclone names

North-east Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Adrian (01E) 09-11 May 1004 mb, 40 knots Adrian was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified. The formation of this early season storm was well predicted.
Beatriz (02E) 31 May-02 June 1002 mb, 40 knots Beatriz was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.
Calvin (03E) 11-13 June 1005 mb, 35 knots Calvin was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.
Dora (04E) 23-28 June 981 mb, 80 knots Track forecast errors were low compared to last season's average.
Eugene (05E) 07-12 July 965 mb, 100 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average at short lead times. Errors were below average at longer lead times.
Fernanda (06E) 12-23 July 948 mb, 125 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average at short lead times. Errors were above average at longer lead times.
Greg (07E) 17-27 July 1001 mb, 50 knots Track forecast errors were mostly below last season's average.
08E 18-20 July 1007 mb, 30 knots No forecasts were verified for this tropical depression.
Hilary (09E) 21-31 July 972 mb, 90 knots Track forecast errors were mostly above last season's average.
Irwin (10E) 22 July-01 August 980 mb, 80 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average, although the sharp right turn by the hurricane was fairly well predicted.
11E 04-05 August 1004 mb, 30 knots No forecasts verified for this tropical depression.
Jova (12E) 12-14 August 1003 mb, 35 knots Jova was only briefly a tropical storm.
Kenneth (13E) 18-23 August 952 mb, 115 knots There was a left-of-track bias in forecasts,r esulting in track errors slightly above last season's average.
Lidia (14E) 29 August-03 September 987 mb, 60 knots Track forecast errors were low for this storm.
Max (16E) 13-15 September 985 mb, 75 knots This hurricane span up and made landfall very quickly so few forecasts were verified.
Norma (17E) 14-20 September 987 mb, 65 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average for this storm.
Otis (15E) 11-19 September 965 mb, 100 knots Otis was a tropical depression for a long time and a tropical storm and hurricane for a short time. Track forecast errors were lower than the recent average.
Pilar (18E) 23-25 September 1002 mb, 40 knots Pilar was only a tropical storm for a day. There was a slow bias in forecasts.
Ramon (19E) 04-05 October 1002 mb, 40 knots Ramon was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.
Selma (20E) 27-28 October 1005 mb, 35 knots Only one forecast was verified for short-lived Tropical Storm Selma, which became the first storm on record to form in the eastern Pacific and make landfall on El Salvador.
Central North Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central Pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
       

North-east and Central North Pacific observed tracks in 2017

North-east Pacific tropical cyclone names

Central North Pacific tropical cyclone names


North Atlantic
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Arlene (01L) 19-21 April 993 mb, 45 knots Arlene was briefly a tropical storm.
Bret (02L) 19-20 June 1008 mb, 40 knots Bret was short-lived as a tropical storm and track forecast errors were low compared to last season's average.
Cindy (03L) 20-22 June 992 mb, 45 knots Cindy was short-lived as a tropical storm and track forecast errors were low compared to last season's average.
04L 06-07 July 1008 mb, 30 knots 04L was a tropical depression. No forecasts were verified.
Don (05L) 17-18 July 1007 mb, 45 knots Don was a tropical storm for just a day and few forecasts were verified.
Emily (06L) 31 July-02 August 1005 mb, 40 knots Emily was briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.
Franklin (07L) 07-10 August 981 mb, 75 knots Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high for forecasts for this hurricane.
Gert (08L) 13-17 August 967 mb, 90 knots There was a slow bias in forecasts resulting in errors above last season's average.
Harvey (09L) 17-31 August 938 mb, 115 knots Harvey initially became a tropical storm then dissipated in the Caribbean Sea before regenerating in the Gulf of Mexico. Long lead time forecasts had large errors due to predicting regeneration much further south than occurred. Once Harvey had regenerated, predictions of landfall and the slow movement close to the Texas coast were mostly well predicted with short lead time track errors very low. Model forecasts gave good indication of the exceptional rainfall totals which were experienced over Texas and western Louisiana.
Irma (11L) 30 August-12 September 914 mb, 160 knots Early forecasts for Irma had a northwards bias for the passage across the north-eastern Leeward Islands. Predictions for the landfall on Cuba and the sharp turn north and landfall on the western side of the Florida peninsula were very good. However, although the direction of motion and landfall locations were well predicted there was a slow bias in forecasts. Thus, overall track forecast errors were close or or a little above last season's average.
Jose (12L) 05-22 September 938 mb, 130 knots The early portion of the track of Jose was well predicted. The slow down and clockwise loop was predicted, but several model runs erroneously predicted a subsequent westerly track towards Florida. The model eventually captured the tight loop and resumption in northerly track. Despite the large errors part way through the hurricane's life, overall track forecast errors were mostly near to or below last season's average. This is testament to the good model predictions at the start and end of the hurricane's lifecycle.
Katia (13L) 05-09 September 977 mb, 90 knots Track forecast errors were low and landfall well predicted.
Lee (14L) 15-30 September 962 mb, 100 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average for this storm and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Maria (15L) 16-30 September 908 mb, 150 knots Track forecast errors for Hurricane Maria were below last season's average for this basin. There was a slight right-of-track bias in fotrecasts for the passage across the Caribbean, but overall biases were low.
Nate (16L) 04-08 October 981 mb, 80 knots Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high for predictions of Nate.
Ophelia (17L) 09-16 October 960 mb, 100 knots Long lead time forecasts for Ophelia had large track errors due to a failure to accelerate the hurricane into the mid-latitude flow. However, at shorter lead times (shorter than five days) this was well predicted and errors were low. The track across the west of Ireland as an extratropical cyclone was predicted well several days in advance.
Philippe (18L) 28-29 October 997 mb, 50 knots Philippe was a short-lived tropical storm and only one forecast was verified. It's formation and absorption into a larger mid-latitude low pressure area were well predicted.
Rina (19L) 06-09 November 995 mb, 50 knots Track forecast errors were low for this storm.

North Atlantic observed tracks in 2017

North Atlantic tropical cyclone names

North Indian
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Maarutha (01B) 15-17 April 994 mb, 45/40 knots Track forecasts were above last season's average for this short-lived storm.
Mora (02B) 27-30 May 974 mb, 65/60 knots The model had a right-of-track bias for this storm, but track forecast errors were mixed depending on lead time.
Ockhi (03B) 29 November-05 December 961 mb, 100/85 knots Track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average.
04B 08-09 December 999 mb, 40/30 knots 04B was short-lived and no forecasts were verified.

North Indian observed tracks in 2017

North Indian tropical cyclone names


Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)

10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (JMA Japan, IMD New Delhi)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.

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