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Observed and forecast tracks: northern hemisphere 2018

All tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere season in 2018 are listed below including details of their start and end dates, lowest central pressure and maximum sustained wind (MSW). Qualitative comments are included on the performance of the Met Office global model in predicting the track of each tropical cyclone.

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

North-west Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Bolaven (01W) 01-04 January 1000 mb, 30/35 knots Bolaven briefly attained tropical storm status according to JMA only. No forecasts were verified.
Sanba (02W) 08-15 February 1002 mb, 55/35 knots Sanba was active for just a couple of days and track forecast errors were low.
Jelawat (03W) 24 March-01 April 935 mb, 130/90 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average for this typhoon.
04W 12-13 May 1004 mb, 35/30 knots 04W was only briefly a tropical storm according to JTWC and only one forecast was verified.
Ewiniar (05W) 02-08 June 998 mb, 35/35 knots Ewiniar was only briefly a tropical storm and few forecasts were verified.
Maliksi (06W) 07-11 June 970 mb, 60/65 knots There was a slow bias in forecasts resulting in track forecast errors slightly above last season's average.
07W 13-14 June 991 mb, 35/30 knots 07W was only briefly a tropical storm according to JTWC and few forecasts were verified.
Gaemi (08W) 14-16 June 990 mb, 35/45 knots Gaemi was only briefly a tropical storm and few forecasts were verified.
Prapiroon (09W) 28 June-04 July 960 mb, 75/65 knots Track forecast errors were mostly a little above last season's average due to a left-of-track bias.
Maria (10W) 02-11 July 915 mb, 140/105 knots Track forecast errors were mostly near to last season's average, although high at long lead times due to a right-of-track bias.
Son-tinh (11W) 15-24 July 994 mb, 40/40 knots Track forecasts for Ampil had a left-of-track bias resulting in track forecast errors above last season's average
Ampil (12W) 17-23 July 985 mb, 50/50 knots Track forecasts for Ampil had a left-of-track bias resulting in track forecast errors above last season's average
13W 20-23 July 996 mb, 30/30 knots No forecasts were verified for this depression.
Wukong (14W) 21-26 July 990 mb, 65/50 knots Track forecast errors were mostly close to last season's average. There were no significant biases.
Jongdari (15W) 22 July-03 August 965 mb, 95/75 knots Track forecast errors were mostly higher than last season's average due to a slow bias.
16W 30-31 July 995 mb, 30/30 knots No forecasts were verifieid for thsi tropical depression.
Shanshan (17W) 02-10 August 970 mb, 90/70 knots Track forecast errors were mostly lower than last season's average for this typhoon. Skill scores were high.
Yagi (18W) 06-13 August 990 mb, 40/40 knots There was a right-of-track bias in forecasts resulting in errors above last season's average.
Leepi (19W) 11-15 August 994 mb, 65/50 knots Forecast tracks were too fast and too far to the left of track.
Bebinca (20W) 12-17 August 980 mb, 60/50 knots Track forecast errors were mostly below last season's average.
Rumbia (21W) 15-17 August 985 mb, 50/45 knots Track forecast errors were near last season's average.
Soulik (22W) 15-24 August 950 mb, 105/85 knots There was a large disparity in forecast track direction and speed at higher latitude resulting in some large errors.
Cimaron (23W) 17-24 August 950 mb, 110/85 knots Track forecast errors were mostly close to last season's average.
24W 23-25 August 995 mb, 30/- knots No forecasts were verified.
Jebi (25W) 27 August - 04 September 915 mb, 150/105 knots Track forecast errors were low for this typhoon, except at the longest lead times.
Mangkhut (26W) 07-17 September 905 mb, 155/110 knots Track forecast errors were well below last season's average for this typhoon. Landfall over the northern Philippines was signalled well in advance.
Barijat (27W) 09-13 September 998 mb, 40/40 knots Track forecast errors were low for Barijat.
Trami (28W) 20 September - 01 October 915 mb, 140/105 knots Track forecast errors were low for Barijat.
29W 26 September 1001 mb, 30/- knots No forecasts were verified for this depression.

North-west observed tracks in 2018

North-west Pacific tropical cyclone names

North-east Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
01E 10-12 May 1006 mb, 30/- knots 01E did not reach tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
Aletta (02E) 06-11 June 943 mb, 120 knots Track forecast errors for Aletta were below last season's average.
Bud (03E) 09-15 June 948 mb, 115 knots Track forecast errors were near to last season's average at short lead times, but above average at longer lead times due to a fast bias.
Carlotta (04E) 14-18 June 997 mb, 55 knots Carlotta was only briefly a tropical storm and few forecasts were verified.
Daniel (05E) 24-26 June 1003 mb, 40 knots Daniel was only briefly a tropical storm and few forecasts were verified.c
Emilia (06E) 27 June-02 July 997 mb, 50 knots Track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average.
Fabio (07E) 30 June-06 July 964 mb, 95 knots Track forecast errors were mostly below last season's average.
Gilma (08E) 26-30 July 1006 mb, 35 knots Gilma only briefly reached tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
09E 26-27 July 1008 mb, 30 knots No forecasts were verified for this depression.
Hector (10E) 31 July-15 August 936 mb, 135 knots Track forecast errors were consistently below last season's average and skill scores against CLIPER were high.
Ileana (11E) 04-07 August 998 mb, 55 knots Track forecast errors were a little above last season's average.
John (12E) 05-10 August 969 mb, 90 knots Track forecast errors were a little above last season's average due to a left-of-track bias.
Kristy (13E) 07-11 August 991 mb, 60 knots Track forecast errors were low.
Lane (14E) 15-29 August 926 mb, 140 knots Track forecast errors were near last season's average at short lead times, but below average at longer lead times. The turn towards Hawaii and the subsequent turn back west were fairly well handled by the model.
Miriam (15E) 26 August - 02 September 974 mb, 85 knots Track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average.
Norman (16E) 28 August - 08 September 937 mb, 130 knots Track forecast errors were near to last season's average.
Olivia (17E) 01-14 September 948 mb, 115 knots Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high for this hurricane.
Paul (18E) 08-12 September 1002 mb, 40 knots Paul was short-lived with track forecast errors close to last season's average.
19E 19-20 September 1002 mb, 30 knots No forecasts were verified for this depression.
Central North Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central Pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
       

North-east and Central North Pacific observed tracks in 2018

North-east Pacific tropical cyclone names

Central North Pacific tropical cyclone names


North Atlantic
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Alberto (01L) 25-29 May 990 mb, 55/- knots Track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average for Subtropical Storm Alberto.
Beryl (02L) 05-16 July 994 mb, 70 knots There was a slow bias at short lead times, resulting in larger than average track forecast errors, but longer lead time errors were low.
Chris (03L) 06-12 July 970 mb, 90 knots Track forecast errors for this storm were high due to a slow bias.
Debby (04L) 07-09 August 1002 mb, 40 knots Track forecast errors were near last season's average.
Ernesto (05L) 15-18 August 985 mb, 50 knots Track forecasts were exceptionally accurate for Ernesto.
Florence (06L) 31 August - 16 September 945 mb, 120 knots Track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average for Florence. Landfall over the USA was well signalled including the slow down in forward motion at the time of landfall.
Gordon (07L) 03-05 September 999 mb, 60 knots Track forecast errors were near to last season's average.
Helene (08L) 07-16 September 966 mb, 95 knots There was a slow bias in forecasts resulting in track forecast errors above last season's average.
Isaac (09L) 07-15 September 993 mb, 65 knots Track forecast errors were large due to the model's erroneaous turn northwards during early forecasts.
Joyce (10L) 12-19 September 997 mb, 45 knots Track forecast errors were mixed, but the 180 degree turn was well predicted.
11L 22-23 September 1007 mb, 30 knots No forecasts were verified for this depression.
Kirk (12L) 22-29 September 998 mb, 45 knots Track forecast errors were large due to an erroneous slow down and turn north-westwards.

North Atlantic observed tracks in 2018

North Atlantic tropical cyclone names

North Indian
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Sagar (01A) 16-19 May 992 mb, 55/45 knots The Global Model had difficulty initialising Cyclone Sagar and hence analysis and forecast errors were larger than average.
Mekunu (02A) 22-26 May 952 mb, 100/95 knots Early forecasts had a right-of-track bias with landfall too far east. From 48 hours before landfall track forecasts were much better. Overall, track forecast errors were above last season's average.
03B 28-29 May 993 mb, 40/30 knots 03B was short-lived with only a couple of forecasts verified.
Daye (04B) 20-21 September 992 mb, 35/35 knots Daye was short-lived with only a couple of forecasts verified.

North Indian observed tracks in 2018

North Indian tropical cyclone names


Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)

10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (JMA Japan, IMD New Delhi)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.

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