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Observed and forecast tracks: southern hemisphere 2016-17

All tropical cyclones in the southern hemisphere season in 2016-17 are listed below including details of their start and end dates, lowest central pressure and maximum sustained wind (MSW). Qualitative comments are included on the performance of the Met Office global model in predicting the track of each tropical cyclone.

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

South-West Indian (west of 90°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Abela (01S) 16-19 July 993 mb, 55/45 knots Track forecast errors were above average at short lead times, but below average at longer lead times.
Bransby 05-06 October 988 mb, -/50 knots Bransby was an early season subtropical storm. Track forecast errors were below last season's average.
Carlos (04S) 04-11 February 975 mb, 65/65 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores were high.
Dineo (05S) 13-16 February 974 mb, 75/65 knots Track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average and skill scores were high.
Enawo (09S) 02-08 March 925 mb, 125/110 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average although there was a polewards bias in forecasts.
Fernando (11S) 07-14 March 992 mb, 40/35 knots Fernando only briefly recahed tropical storm status and few forecasts were verified.
South-west Indian tropical cyclone names

South-west Indian observed tracks in 2016-17

Australian (90-160°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Yvette (02S) 19-24 December 987 mb, 45/40 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average.
03S 27-29 January 988 mb, 45/45 knots Despite having winds above tropical storm strength, this low was not named as the winds did not wrap around the low centre sufficiently. Only a few forecasts were verified.
Alfred (06P) 20 February 994 mb, 40/45 knots Alfred was only briefly a tropical storm before making landfall.
Blanche (10S) 05-06 March 988 mb, 50/50 knots Blanche was only briefly a tropical storm.
Caleb (12S) 23-27 March 989 mb, 45/45 knots Caleb was very well rpedicted by the model and track errors were small.
Debbie (13P) 24-28 March 943 mb, 105/100 knots Early forecasts predicted landfall too far north, but overall track forecast errors were below last season's average for this cyclone.
14P 05-06 April 998 mb, 35/30 knots 14P was briefly a tropical storm as measured by 1-minute average winds.
Ernie (15S) 06-10 April 922 mb, 130/120 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average. The raid intensification was poorly forecast.
Frances (17S) 27-30 April 980 mb, 70/65 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average. The forecast intensity was too weak.
Greg (-) 30 April 997 mb, 30/35 knots Greg was briefly a tropical storm as defined by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
Australian tropical cyclone names

Indonesian tropical cyclone names

Papua New Guinea tropical cyclone names

Fiji (east of 160°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Bart (07P) 21-22 February 994 mb, 40/40 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average.
08P 22 February 995 mb, 40/30 knots 08P was very short-lived and few forecasts verified.
Cook (16P) 07-11 April 961 mb, 85/85 knots Track forecast errors were close to last season's average for this storm.
Donna (18P) 02-10 May 935 mb, 120/110 knots There was a left-of-track bias in many forecasts. Track forecast errors were high at short lead times, but lower at longer lead times.
Ella (19P) 09-14 May 977 mb, 75/60 knots Track forecast errors were slightly above last season's average for this storm.

Fiji tropical cyclone names

Western Australian observed tracks in 2016-17

Eastern Australian observed tracks in 2016-17

South Atlantic
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Deni (01T) 15-17 November 998 mb, -/35 knots Deni was a short-lived subtropical storm.
Eçai (02T) 05-06 December 992 mb, -/35 knots Eçai was a short-lived subtropical storm.

South Atlantic tropical cyclone names

South Atlantic observed tracks in 2016-17

Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over one minute (JTWC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)

Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.

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