Observed and forecast tracks: southern hemisphere 2017-18
All tropical cyclones in the southern hemisphere season in 2017-18 are listed below including details of their start and end dates, lowest central pressure and maximum sustained wind (MSW). Qualitative comments are included on the performance of the Met Office global model in predicting the track of each tropical cyclone.
Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ava (03S) | 02-09 January | 958 mb, 95/85 knots | Landfall was well predicted and track forecast errors were below last season's average. |
| Berguitta (06S) | 12-29 January | 940 mb, 100/90 knots | Although early forecasts tracked Berguitta a little too far south of Mauritius, track errors were below last season's average and skill scores high. |
| Cebile (07S) | 27 January-08 February | 952 mb, 120/100 knots | Track forecast errors were low at short lead time, but large at long lead times due to the left-of-track bias early in the cyclone's life. |
| Dumazile (11S) | 02-07 March | 954 mb, 105/85 knots | Track forecast errors were well below last season's average and skill scores were high. |
| Eliakim (14S) | 14-20 March | 980 mb, 55/55 knots | Track forecast errors were lower than last season's average - particularly at longer lead times. |
South-west Indian observed tracks in 2017-18
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cempaka (-) | 27-29 November | 998 mb, 30/35 knots | Cempaka designated a tropical storm by BMKG, but not by JTWC. No forecasts were verified. |
| Dahlia (01S) | 29 November-04 December | 985mb, 55/50 knots | Track forecast errors were above average for this storm. |
| Hilda (02S) | 27-28 December | 985 mb, 40/40 knots | Hilda was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified. |
| Irving (04S) | 05-10 January | 964 mb, 90/80 knots | Track forecast errors were low and skill scores very high for this cyclone. |
| Joyce (05S) | 09-13 January | 982 mb, 50/45 knots | Joyce was a tropical storm for less than two days, but in that time track forecasts were good. |
| Kelvin (10S) | 16-19 February | 975 mb, 80/60 knots | Track forecast errors were low, with landfall well predicted. |
| Linda (13P) | 12-14 March | 991 mb, 50/40 knots | Linda was relatively short-lived, but track forecast errors were low. |
| Marcus (15S) | 15-24 March | 914 mb, 140/125 knots | The track of Marcus was well predicted with errors well below last season's average. |
| Nora (16P) | 22-25 March | 959 mb, 95/85 knots | Track forecast errors were low. The Met Office Global Model performed better than other models in predicting an early landfall on the Cape York Peninsula. |
Indonesian tropical cyclone names
Papua New Guinea tropical cyclone names
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fehi (08P) | 28-30 January | 986 mb, 50/45 knots | Track forecast errors were a little above last season's average due to a slow bias. |
| Gita (09P) | 08-19 February | 927 mb, 125/105 knots | Track forecast errors were below last season's average with the turns in the track of Gita generally well predicted. |
| Hola (12P) | 06-11 March | 952 mb, 95/90 knots | Track forecast errors were a little high at short lead times, but low at longer lead times. |
Western Australian observed tracks in 2017-18
Eastern Australian observed tracks in 2017-18
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
South Atlantic tropical cyclone names
South Atlantic observed tracks in 2017-18
Note on estimated wind speeds
1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over one minute (JTWC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.
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