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Observed and forecast tracks: southern hemisphere 2017-18

All tropical cyclones in the southern hemisphere season in 2017-18 are listed below including details of their start and end dates, lowest central pressure and maximum sustained wind (MSW). Qualitative comments are included on the performance of the Met Office global model in predicting the track of each tropical cyclone.

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

South-West Indian (west of 90°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Ava (03S) 02-09 January 958 mb, 95/85 knots Landfall was well predicted and track forecast errors were below last season's average.
Berguitta (06S) 12-29 January 940 mb, 100/90 knots Although early forecasts tracked Berguitta a little too far south of Mauritius, track errors were below last season's average and skill scores high.
Cebile (07S) 27 January-08 February 952 mb, 120/100 knots Track forecast errors were low at short lead time, but large at long lead times due to the left-of-track bias early in the cyclone's life.
Dumazile (11S) 02-07 March 954 mb, 105/85 knots Track forecast errors were well below last season's average and skill scores were high.
Eliakim (14S) 14-20 March 980 mb, 55/55 knots Track forecast errors were lower than last season's average - particularly at longer lead times.
Fakir (20S) 23-25 April 977 mb, 65/60 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average.
South-west Indian tropical cyclone names

South-west Indian observed tracks in 2017-18

Australian (90-160°E) - including Indonesia and PNG
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Cempaka (-) 27-29 November 998 mb, 30/35 knots Cempaka designated a tropical storm by BMKG, but not by JTWC. No forecasts were verified.
Dahlia (01S) 29 November-04 December 985mb, 55/50 knots Track forecast errors were above average for this storm.
Hilda (02S) 27-28 December 985 mb, 40/40 knots Hilda was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.
Irving (04S) 05-10 January 964 mb, 90/80 knots Track forecast errors were low and skill scores very high for this cyclone.
Joyce (05S) 09-13 January 982 mb, 50/45 knots Joyce was a tropical storm for less than two days, but in that time track forecasts were good.
Kelvin (10S) 16-19 February 975 mb, 80/60 knots Track forecast errors were low, with landfall well predicted.
Linda (13P) 12-14 March 991 mb, 50/40 knots Linda was relatively short-lived, but track forecast errors were low.
Marcus (15S) 15-24 March 914 mb, 140/125 knots The track of Marcus was well predicted with errors well below last season's average.
Nora (16P) 22-25 March 959 mb, 95/85 knots Track forecast errors were low. The Met Office Global Model performed better than other models in predicting an early landfall on the Cape York Peninsula.
Flamboyan (21S) * 28 April-02 May 983 mb, 70/60 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average.

* For statistical purposes Flamboyan was considered a South-West Indian Ocean storm as it spent most of its lifetime in that basin.

Australian tropical cyclone names

Indonesian tropical cyclone names

Papua New Guinea tropical cyclone names

Fiji (east of 160°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Fehi (08P) 28-30 January 986 mb, 50/45 knots Track forecast errors were a little above last season's average due to a slow bias.
Gita (09P) 08-19 February 927 mb, 125/105 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average with the turns in the track of Gita generally well predicted.
Hola (12P) 06-11 March 952 mb, 95/90 knots Track forecast errors were a little high at short lead times, but low at longer lead times.
Iris (17P) 23 March-06 April 987 mb, 55/45 knots Iris has a meandering track and fell below tropical storm strength for a period in its lifetime. Track forecast errors were below last season's average.
Josie (18P) 31 March-03 April 993 mb, 45/35 knots Track forecasts were consistently below last season's average.
Keni (19P) 08-11 April 970 mb, 85/75 knots Track forecasts for Keni were very good.

Fiji tropical cyclone names

Western Australian observed tracks in 2017-18

Eastern Australian observed tracks in 2017-18

South Atlantic
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
       

South Atlantic tropical cyclone names

South Atlantic observed tracks in 2017-18

Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over one minute (JTWC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)

Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.

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