Met Office 2013 annual global temperature forecast

Global temperatures

20 December 2012 - 2013 is expected to be between 0.43 °C and 0.71 °C warmer than the long-term (1961-1990) global average of 14.0 °C, with a best estimate of around 0.57 °C, according to the Met Office annual global temperature forecast.

Taking into account the range of uncertainty in the forecast and observations, it is very likely that 2013 will be one of the warmest ten years in the record which goes back to 1850, and it is likely to be warmer than 2012.

The prediction follows provisional figures for the observed temperature in 2012, published by the Met Office and University of East Anglia last month. These showed that global average temperatures in 2012 were 0.45 °C above the long term average based on data from the three international global temperature datasets used by the World Meteorological Organization.

2012 is currently ranked the 9th warmest year on record. The global average temperature for 2012 falls well within the range predicted by the Met Office for 2012 of between 0.34 °C and 0.62 °C, with a most likely value of 0.48 °C above the long term average. This is consistent with the Met Office forecast statement  that 2012 was expected to be warmer than 2011, but not as warm as the record year of 2010.

Notes to editors:

  • The three international global temperature data sets are from the Met Office and University of East Anglia (HadCRUT4), NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NOAA NCDC) and NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies (NASA GISS).
  • The table below provides the top 12 rankings for the World Meteorological Organisation data set. 2012 includes Jan to Oct 2012:
RankYearWMO Global Temperature Anomaly *
120100.54
220050.54
319980.51
420070.49
520030.49
620020.49
720090.48
820060.48
920120.45
1020040.43
1120010.43
1220110.42

* Anomaly: °C above long-term average of 14.0 °C.

Contact information

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Last updated: 21 December 2012