Met Office

Seasonal to decadal prediction

Research and development of skilful ensemble forecasts on seasonal to decadal timescales, for adaptation to climate variability and change.

This area covers research into climate variability and predictability; development of operational ensemble-prediction systems, derived applications and products for seasonal to decadal timescales. Our decadal prediction system is the first in the world and our long-range predictions are currently among the most skilful. The forecasts and applications have a variety of uses throughout the world.

  • Long-range montage

    Long-range predictions

    Experimental seasonal to decadal predictions

  • WMO

    GPC outlooks

    Predictions from the Met Office as a Global Producing Centre (GPC) of long-range forecasts for the World Meteorological Organization

  • Observed ENSO index (Nino 3)

    Climate variability

    Research into climate variability and predictability aimed at improving the skill of the Met Office's seasonal and decadal forecasts.

  • Predicted ENSO index (Nino 3.4).

    Seasonal prediction

    Development of forecasting capabilities on seasonal timescales.

  • 2009 decadal prediction of global average temperature and validation of past predictions.

    Decadal prediction

    Development of forecasting capabilities on decadal timescales.

  • Number of tropical storms in the North Atlantic predicted for July-November 2009.

    Climate applications

    Predictions and user-relevant applications on seasonal to decadal timescale

  • Research collaboration will be essential for delivering the predictive capability that the Met Office will require in the coming decade.

    External collaborations

    External collaborations on seasonal to decadal prediction

  • Our science is underpinned by publications

    Seasonal to Decadal publications

    Publications by scientists in Seasonal to Decadal prediction.

  • Adam Scaife

    Seasonal to Decadal scientists

    Information on the wide range of work our seasonal to decadal prediction scientists undertake; the projects they are involved with and their skills and interests.

Last Updated: 26 August 2011