Met Office

Seasonal to decadal prediction

Research and development of skilful ensemble forecasts on seasonal to decadal timescales, for adaptation to climate variability and change.

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This area covers research into climate variability and predictability; development of operational ensemble-prediction systems, derived applications and products for seasonal to decadal timescales. Our decadal prediction system is the first in the world and our long-range predictions are currently among the most skilful. The forecasts and applications have a variety of uses throughout the world.

  • Long-range montage

    Long-range predictions

    Experimental seasonal to decadal predictions

  • WMO

    GPC outlooks

    Predictions from the Met Office as a Global Producing Centre (GPC) of long-range forecasts for the World Meteorological Organization

  • Observed ENSO index (Nino 3)

    Climate variability

    Research into climate variability and predictability aimed at improving the skill of the Met Office's seasonal and decadal forecasts.

  • Predicted ENSO index (Nino 3.4).

    Seasonal prediction

    Development of forecasting capabilities on seasonal timescales.

  • 2009 decadal prediction of global average temperature and validation of past predictions.

    Decadal prediction

    Development of forecasting capabilities on decadal timescales.

  • Number of tropical storms in the North Atlantic predicted for July-November 2009.

    Climate applications

    Predictions and user-relevant applications on seasonal to decadal timescale

  • Research collaboration will be essential for delivering the predictive capability that the Met Office will require in the coming decade.

    External collaborations

    External collaborations on seasonal to decadal prediction

  • Our science is underpinned by publications

    Seasonal to Decadal publications

    Publications by scientists in Seasonal to Decadal prediction.

  • Adam Scaife

    Seasonal to Decadal scientists

    Information on the wide range of work our seasonal to decadal prediction scientists undertake; the projects they are involved with and their skills and interests.

Last Updated: 26 August 2011